the origin of AI

一切真正开始于 1950 年代。那时候计算机才刚出生没几年,一群年轻人——Alan Turing、John McCarthy、Marvin Minsky、Allen Newell、Herbert Simon 这些人——突然冒出个大胆的想法:能不能造一台机器,让它表现出“智能”?1956 年,他们在达特茅斯学院开了个夏天研讨会,直接把“人工智能”这个词发明出来了。那会儿的乐观情绪高得离谱:有人说“20 年内就能解决所有智能问题”。他们相信,只要把逻辑、搜索、符号处理这些东西装进计算机,就能模拟人类思考。于是 第一个 AI 热潮(1956–1973)开始了。成果还真不少:逻辑理论家证明了数学定理、通用问题求解器 Shakey 机器人能在房间里晃悠、ELIZA 这个聊天程序居然能骗人觉得它懂心理学。但问题也很快就来了:这些系统只能在非常窄、非常结构化的玩具世界里玩得转。一遇到真实世界的复杂性、模糊性、不确定性,它们就卡壳了。计算资源也跟不上,内存小、速度慢。到了 1973 年,英国 Lighthill 报告一锤子砸下来,说 AI 基本没戏,美国和英国的资助大幅缩水——第一个“AI 冬天”就这么开始了。70 年代到 80 年代初,AI 低调了好一阵子。但没完全死掉。有些人悄悄转向了 专家系统(expert systems)。想法很简单:别再试图让机器自己“思考”了,直接把人类专家的知识一条一条编码进去,做成 if-then 规则库。MYCIN 诊断细菌感染、DENDRAL 分析化学分子、XCON 帮 DEC 公司配置电脑订单——这些系统真的在某些领域赚了钱、帮了大忙。80 年代中期,日本的第五代计算机计划和美国 DARPA 的战略计算计划又把钱砸进来,专家系统公司如雨后春笋一样冒出来。可好景不长。到 80 年代末,大家发现:规则写得再多,也写不完现实世界的全部例外;维护知识库贵得离谱;新情况一来,系统就崩溃。最要命的是,专家自己常常说不清“为什么”这么判断。于是第二个 AI 冬天又来了(1987–1993),资金撤退,公司倒闭,很多人以为 AI 这事儿彻底凉了。但就在冬天里,有几条暗流在悄悄流动。一条是 神经网络。它其实 50 年代就有(感知机),但因为 Minsky 和 Papert 1969 年那本《Perceptrons》把单层网络批得体无完肤,大家都觉得它没戏。80 年代中期,Rumelhart、Hinton、Williams 重新发明了反向传播,多层网络开始复活。Yann LeCun 搞出了卷积神经网络,能认手写数字了。但那时候计算力不够,数据也不够,大家还是觉得“神经网络太慢、太黑箱”。另一条暗流是 概率方法和机器学习。Judea Pearl 的贝叶斯网络、统计学习理论、支持向量机这些东西开始冒头。它们不像符号 AI 那么刚愎自用,而是承认世界有不确定性,愿意从数据里学。然后 1997 年出了个事儿,让很多人重新抬起头:IBM 的深蓝(Deep Blue)下棋打败了世界冠军卡斯帕罗夫。那不是神经网络,是暴力搜索 + 手工特征 + 评估函数。但它告诉大家:专用系统在特定任务上,是真的可以超过人类的。真正的转折点来得晚一些——2010 年代初。GPU 的出现让训练深层神经网络突然变得可行;ImageNet 大规模数据集公开;AlexNet(2012)在图像识别比赛上把错误率砍了一半多。大家突然意识到:只要数据够多、计算力够强、层数够深,神经网络的性能就能指数级飙升。这就是所谓的“深度学习革命”。从那以后,AI 进入第三个春天,而且是前所未有的热潮:

  • 2014–2016:生成对抗网络(GAN)、AlphaGo(2016 打败李世石)

  • 2017:Transformer 架构横空出世(Attention is All You Need)

  • 2018–2022:BERT、GPT 系列把自然语言处理彻底颠覆

  • 2022–现在:ChatGPT、GPT-4、Gemini、Claude、Llama、o1 系列……大语言模型把“会聊天、会写代码、会推理”这事儿做到了让普通人都震惊的程度

但我得跟你说实话(因为我见过太多轮热潮了):我们现在拥有的这些东西,虽然表面上很强大,但它们本质上还是超级厉害的统计模式匹配器。它们在海量数据里学会了模仿人类的语言、图像、代码,但它们没有真正理解意义、没有稳固的常识、没有对世界的因果模型、很容易在边缘情况崩溃、会一本正经地胡说八道(hallucination)。所以 AI 的历史,其实是一部人类对“智能”定义不断调整的历史。一开始我们以为智能就是逻辑推理,后来以为是专家知识,再后来以为是模式识别和大规模统计。现在很多人又开始说“也许智能就是足够大规模的模式匹配”。但我总觉得,我们可能还差了点什么——也许是类比、也许是抽象、也许是对“意义”的真正把握。咱们别急着宣布胜利,也别急着宣布失败。这段历史告诉我们:每一次大突破,都伴随着巨大的 hype 和后来的清醒。每一次冬天,都在为下一次春天攒能量。你看,现在我们站在又一个高点上。但真正的问题不是“机器会不会超过我们”,而是我们人类在试图造出“像我们一样”的东西时,到底学到了多少关于自己的事。



n5321 | 2026年2月28日 01:07

Prompt Value

在NASA工作17年的航空工程师,未来的米帝国家工程院院士Walter G. Vincenti,在1957年转身斯坦福任教,重建航空航天工程专业。Walter G. Vincenti是工程界的大佬。

1970年,经济系的同事Nathan Rosenberg在一个午餐后问他:What is it you engineers really do?”

翻译过来是你们工程师到底是做什么的!

大佬被问懵了!鱼是最后一个知道水的!工程师可能对哲学或者说社会学意义上的工程并不了解!按IT界大佬Leslie Lamport的台词,那就更加刁毒了: If you think you know something but don't write it down, you only think you know it. 意思说你要是写不清楚,那不过是自以为是。

于是Walter G. Vincenti转向研究技术哲学。20年后写了《What Engineers Know and How They Know It》

那个工程师怎么干的问题被直接置换了!被置换成What engineers do, however, depends on what they know。

没有分析、没有论证的置换过了,当成公理一样置换了!

工程师想要知道!They want to know!

在AI时代,大语言模型(LLMs)声称“浓缩(abstract)”了人类知识,但实际上,LLMs的“知道”依赖于我们如何通过prompt“提取”和“引导”它——这正是prompt engineering的核心。

LLMs不是主动“知道”的实体,而是通过提示(prompt)激活潜在模式的“知识库”。

正如Vincenti强调的,如果你不写下来(或不精确prompt),你就只是“自以为知道”。借用Leslie Lamport的台词:如果你不能清晰prompt,那你对LLM的认知也只是幻觉。


n5321 | 2026年2月28日 01:06

Interview with Leslie Lamport: Turing Award Winner


Teaser / Intro

Leslie Lamport: If you think you know something but don't write it down, you only think you know it.

Host: This is Leslie Lamport. He's a Turing Award winner famous for his contributions to distributed systems. And I interviewed him for the stories behind his papers.

Leslie Lamport: Their reaction shocked me. They became angry. I really thought they might physically attack me.

Host: What was it about Dystra's old solution that you felt was unsatisfactory? It was not an obvious idea to most people that had actually impressed Dystra.

Host: As the inventor of the Paxus algorithm, I asked them his thoughts on the competing raft algorithm.

Leslie Lamport: There was a bug discovered in Raft and fixed, but I believe the algorithm that they found more understandable was one with that bug.

Host: I also enjoyed reflecting over his 50-year career. You say things like, "You never considered yourself smart. How could that be?" Stupid people think they're smart because they're too stupid to realize they're not.

Host: You felt like a failure at some point because you wanted to develop this grand theory of concurrency and you never discovered it. Do you still feel that way?


The Bakery Algorithm & Dijkstra

Host: Here's the full episode. I wanted to start with the bakery algorithm. What is the problem that the bakery algorithm solves? And you know how did you discover the problem?

Leslie Lamport: Well uh the problem was invented or discovered by Edkar Dystra in a 1965 I think it was 1965 paper and that began I consider that really the beginning of the theory of uh concurrency concurrent programming. He was the first one who really made use of the idea of of concurrency as a way of structuring programs as a as a collection of semi-independent tasks and the processes have to uh synchronize with one another.

Uh one of the processes or you know among the processes would be well this was in the days of time sharing uh you know right at really at the beginning of beginnings of time sharing and the idea of multiple people using the same computer. People realized that computers were worked faster than humans and so and computers were very expensive in those days. So uh they wanted they could use a computer to simultaneously to be used simultaneously by multiple people. The program that each user was running you know was a separate program but sometimes you know there were resources that got shared. for example, a printer, two people trying to print on the same printer at the same time. Well, the result would be, you know, not very satisfactory.

So uh he realized there was this problem of uh synchronizing um multiple processes via the idea of what he called a critical section or some piece of code in each of the processes so that at most one process can be executing that piece of code at any particular time. So that code might be the code that prints something on the printer. So the problem was how to get the uh processes to synchronize among themselves so that at most one process was executing its critical section at a time.

And um it was in 1972 that I learned about the problem because there was an article giving a solution to it um in the CACM communications of the ACM and uh I mean I used to program and I liked little programming problems you know uh and this was just a very nice little programming problem. And so I looked at the solution, which is fairly complicated, and I said, "Oh, gee, that shouldn't be so hard." And so I whipped off a very simple uh algorithm for two processes and submitted it to CACM. And a couple of weeks later, I received uh a letter from the editor uh pointing out the bug in my program. So that had two effects.

The first was that I realized that concurrent programs were hard to get right and that you needed a proof that they were correct. And second uh was that made me feel I'm gonna solve that damn problem. And I came up with the bakery algorithm which was inspired by uh the idea came from you know what now called the deli problem where you have a deli counter and that collects you know tickets a roll of tickets and every customer would come in and take a ticket and then the the next person s to to be served would be the one with the highest the lowest numbered ticket uh that hadn't been served yet.

And basically that I took that idea uh but since uh there was no central server uh or at least the the problem is as specified by Dystra involved no central control. Each process basically had to choose their own ticket. That was you know the basic idea and the algorithm was you know quite simple. And I wrote a a proof of correctness.

And uh the proof of correctness revealed to me that this algorithm was had this very interesting property. There was a general feeling in fact somebody published in a in a book or paper saying you know that it was impossible to implement mutual exclusion like this without using some lower level mutual exclusion. And the way most the mutual exclusion that was assumed generally was that of shared registers. you know, shared pieces of memory that could be written and write and uh read by different processes. And the idea is that, you know, you couldn't have one process, you know, two processes writing at the same time or one process reading while the other process was writing. People assumed that those actions were atomic. They always performed as if they occurred in some specific order.

But the amazing thing about the bakery algorithm was that it didn't require that assumption. It it used uh each shared memory a piece of memory was only written by a single process. So it didn't have to worry about two processes interfering with each other. The only problem that you might come is that somebody reading the uh value while it was being written might get you know some unknown value but the algorithm worked anyway. If somebody read if one process read while the registers was being written that process reading process could get absolutely any value and the algorithm still worked.

Host: I saw in your your writing about this problem that you shared it with a colleague named Anatol Hol and the proof was so remarkable that uh they didn't believe it and...

Leslie Lamport: well the the result was so remarkable.

Host: Yes. Yes. that didn't believe it.

Leslie Lamport: And uh you know I wrote the proof on the on the whiteboard for him and you know he couldn't find it but he went home and saying there must be something wrong with it and uh he obviously never found anything wrong with it.

Host: Right. I saw the name of the paper is a new solution of Dystra's concurrent programming problem. What was it about Dystra's old solution that you felt was unsatisfactory and made you want to solve this problem?

Leslie Lamport: Uh well, there was an unsatisfactory aspect of his original solution that had the property that if there were a lot of if processes kept trying to uh enter their critical section uh an individual process might be starved. might never get access to to the critical section that was solved uh by you know the next solution I think was Don Kuth's the condition that was desired or that that measured that what was considered the uh the efficiency of it was how long a process might have to wait and I believe that the bakery algorith of them was the first one that was really first come first served. That is if one process came if what it meant is if one process chose its number before another process tried to enter the first process would enter the critical section before the other process did. And I believe the bakery algorithm was the first one with that uh with that property. And also I think it was simpler than uh other uh solutions.

Working with Dijkstra & The Gift of Abstraction

Host: in a lot of the writing. I see that you worked with Dystra and I saw in 1976 you actually worked for a month in the Netherlands and you worked with them. Can you talk about that a little bit?

Leslie Lamport: Dyster used to had the things they're called EWDs his initials. little papers, things that when he he thought of something, had some idea, he would write it down and send it out to people. Well, one of those EWDs was about he and uh some associates or actually sort of mentees I guess you would call them wrote this this algorithm. It was the first concurrent garbage collection algorithm.

a way of writing programs evolved where there was a pool of memory uh that when a program would need a piece of memory, it would ask some server for it and be given this piece of memory. Uh but at some point it would stop using that memory. But the program itself wouldn't know that the one the particular process that created this memory you know wouldn't know whether some other process is using that memory or not. So there was an additional process called the garbage collector which would go around examining the memory and decide which pieces of memory were no longer being used and then put them back on the it's called the free list and in which uh the uh server that the process that was giving out the uh uh memory would be able to to take it.

I looked at it and I realized that uh I could simplify the algorithm. Uh because he had some some spe the the handling of the free list was done by a special process that you know which had it to worry about its own coordination with the uh uh the processes that were using the memory. And I realized that that free list could just be made part of the regular data structure. uh so it didn't need special handling and that seemed to me like a very uh simple idea and a very obvious idea and I sent it to him and then when I get got the next version of the paper I discovered he had made me an author and I thought that was very generous of him uh to have to have done that because it seemed like very simple idea and I mean very obvious vious idea and I later realized much later that it was not an obvious idea to most people uh and that that had actually impressed uh Dystra.

when that was the only thing I actually did with Dystra many years later he said that I had uh a remarkable ability at abstraction only in very recent years I mean Maybe maybe after I got the touring award that I realized that the reason for my success and the reason I got it wind up wound up getting a touring award was not that I was particularly that smart but that I had this gift of abstraction and Dystra was smart enough to realize that I was invited to uh spend a month uh but not with Dysterra, with a colleague of his, Carl Carl Holton. Only one thing that was ever published came out of that. Carl and I would uh meet with Dystra once a week. Uh in the in the course of that discussion, the idea somehow came up that led to uh a variant of the bakery algorithm that I wrote up and published. Uh so that was the the one tangible result that that came from my month in uh the Netherlands.

Host: Yeah. I I saw that you wrote that. Yeah. You you spent one afternoon a week working, talking and drinking beer at Dextrous House and you kind of don't remember exactly who was uh you know in charge of uh what on that paper, but...

Leslie Lamport: yeah. Well, I don't think I was really could have gotten that drunk because uh I probably drove to the meeting and back from the meeting. So,

Host: Right. Right.

Leslie Lamport: The the Dutch beer that I was drinking was not very alcoholic.

Time Clocks and Ordering of Events

Host: I wanted to talk about your most cited paper, the one titled time clocks and the ordering of events and distributed systems. What's the story behind the paper and the problem you were solving with it?

Leslie Lamport: The origin was simple. uh it well somebody sent me a paper on building distributed databases and so where you'll have well multiple copies of the data in different places and you need to keep them synchronized in some way. I looked at it and I realized that their solution had this problem that the se that it it had the property that things would be executed as if they occurred in subsequence but that sequence could be different from the sequence in which they actually happened.

The notion of of what you know happening before means is not obvious or not obvious to most people but I happen to you know learn about you know special relativity in particular uh what's known as the it's the space-time view of of special relativity where you basically consider space and time together just one four-dimensional thing and that was Einstein wrote his paper in 1905 and and in I think it was 1909 uh somebody whose name I'm blocking on provided this four-dimensional view and that four-dimensional view has the the particular notion of what it means for one pro one event to occur before another and that notion is that one event happens before another. If a a signal uh was emitted from the first event and received by the whoever did that second event before that second event happened, but the communication could not travel faster than the speed of light because nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.

Well, I realized there was an obvious analogy. Uh the notion of happens before is exactly the same as in relativity except instead of being whether something one event can influence another by things traveling at the speed of light, it's whether the first event could have affected the other by information sent over messages that were actually sent in the system. The thing that you know blew people away was this this definition of of happens before in a distributed system with also this was the first paper I would call like you know had a scientific result about distributed systems.

I made perhaps you know mistake that I was warned against at some point of having two ideas in in one paper. The other thing that I realized was that there was an an algorithm that would show whether one event that it would produce an ordering that satisfied this that condition that if some if one event happened the other before the other then that first event would be ordered before the other. And I realized that if you had an algorithm to do that, you could use it to basically provide the the synchronization you needed for any distributed system because you could describe that system in terms of a state machine.

And a state machine as as I described it then is something that has a state and process executes you know uh commands that need to be executed in order and the command simply is something that makes a change of the state and and produces a value. And so you can just describe this state machine as just you know how event how commands affect the state and and how they produce and what you know what the new state is as a function of the original state and what the value is as a function of the original state.

It it turned out that this was very obvious to me, but that's really in practice the important idea in that paper because it showed that this method of building distributed systems by thinking in terms of state machine and and can thinking about concurrent systems in terms of state machines. Um but that part was completely ignored. As a matter of fact, twice I talked to people about that paper and they said there was nothing in that paper about state machines and I had to go back and reread and reread the paper to be sure I wasn't going crazy and it really did talk about state machines.

It's important uh for another reason. uh if you're trying to understand a concurrent program you concurrent programs are written the bakery algorithm is really an exception uh concurrent programs are written assuming atomic actions so that you assume that the execution behaves like a a sequence you you can assume that the execution proceeds as a sequence of events. It turns out that the way to understand, you know, why why does a program produce the right answer? Well, the answer is well, you it you give it the uh the you know the right input. You give it the input and then it produces the right answer. Well, but by the time you're in the middle of execution, what it was given at the beginning is ancient history. The only thing that that tells the program what to do next is its current state.

And the way to understand uh a program, you know, a simple program that just, you know, takes input and produces an answer is to say what is the property of the state at each point that ensures that the answer it produces is correct is going to be correct. And that property which is mathematically a fun a boolean valued function of the state is called an invariant. And understanding the invariant is the way to understand the system. You know the the program and I realized that the same thing is true of concurrent systems and concurrent programs. People like to write proof you know behavioral proofs reasoning about sequences.

And the problem with that is that the number of sequences possible sequences you know is exponential in the length of the sequence while the com so your complexity of your reasoning gets to be very complicated. It's very easy to to miss cases. Um but the complexity of an invariance proof the complexity of the invariant basically is well oh god it's the number of possible executions is exponential in the number of processes but the uh the behavior of the proof of a an invariance proof is quadratic in the number of processes. you know that's basically why invariance proofs are better but you know there's still for a long time that you know people you know doing uh distributed systems theory are trying to do it uh you know develop you know methods and formalism something that are based on partial orderings and that they've you know published a lot of papers but it's just you know not the way if you want to do it in practice that's that's not the way to do it and I shouldn't say you know it's not the way uh you know there are algorithms like the bakery algorithm that you know you know thinking in partial orderings is in fact a very good way of doing it but those are the exceptions the the work the method that works you know that you can be sure will will will work is the use of invariance.

The Byzantine Generals Problem

Host: I want to talk about the I guess the next paper which uh is the Byzantines general's problem. I think that's something that we hear about and we learn about when you're going through college and computer science and the name is great and I want to know the the story behind that problem.

Leslie Lamport: After I wrote that time clocks paper that was a tells you how to build a distributed system but assuming no failures and it was obvious that um you know distributed one reason for a distributed systems is you have multiple computers so if one fails you can you know keep going. in particular uh that was the problem that it was being solved at SRRI when I uh when I joined it but before I got to SRRI and I started working on that problem and I uh there's no notion of idea of you know what I should think about is you know what what can a failure do so I assume that you know the worst possible case that a failed process might do absolutely anything.

And I came up with an algorithm that basically would uh implement a state machine uh under that assumption and that the algorithm I came out with used digital signatures. Yeah. So that it used the fact that a faulty process might do anything but it could not forge the signature of another process.

Host: which just means that the message can be trusted that it came from a private...

Leslie Lamport: right so that you can relay messages and the people know can check that the relayed message is actually the one that was originally sent uh and so that a solution using that when I got to SRRI I realized that the people were were trying to solve the same problem. Uh but there are two differences. First of all, at the time I did this was you know 1975. very few people know knew about digital signatures and in fact I don't remember when the Diffy Helman paper was published but it was around 1975 and I happen to know about digital signatures because Whit Diffy who was one of the author two authors of that paper uh was a friend of mine and in fact at one point we were at a coffee house uh and he was describing these things that he said we have this problem of building digital signatures uh you know we haven't solved and I said oh that seems easy enough and uh and I sat down and literally on a napkin I wrote out a a you know the first digital signature algorithm.

It was not practical at the time because it it required basically something like uh you know 128 bits to sign one bit of the you know of of the thing you they're signing. It's not quite that bad because you know as you might think because you could use sign not a the entire dent document but a hash of that document which you assume you know people cannot forge uh

Host: the hash they can't reverse

Leslie Lamport: yeah you can't reverse you go take a hash and and you know you find some other hash that you know or some other document that satisfies that hash. But anyway, that's why I had, you know, digital signatures were part of my toolkit. Uh, so the people at SRRI didn't have that, but they also had a nicer abstraction of it. Instead of getting agreement on a sequence among the processes on a sequence of commands, uh they would agree have an algorithm for agreement on a single command and then that algorithm would be uh executed multiple times to and you know that was a nicer way of of describing uh you know what you're doing than than than my method.

So the first paper that was published uh use gave both the their original oh so but since they didn't have digital signatures they used a different algorithm uh and they had the property that to tolerate one faulty process uh you needed four processes whereas if you used digital signatures you only needed three processes. So the original paper contained both algorithms and so I was one of the authors. The other algorithm without digital signatures is is more complicated and the general one for end processes was really a work of genius. Uh it was almost incomprehensible. You just had to read in this complicated proof that uh you know for the arbitrary case of an arbitrary number of processes you need n pro for to tolerate n faults you needed four n processes whereas with digital signatures you need three n processes and the the algorithm for single fault wasn't hard but the one for multiple four parts was uh Marshall Peas was the one who did it and just brilliant uh Later in a in a later paper I uh I discovered uh a simpler proof one that was an inductive proofly proof that if it works for n minus one you know you it worked for n with 3 n if it works for 3 n * n minus one the original paper was uh you know the original one was just brilliant uh who would have discovered it anyway um so we published that paper and I realized that this was this the whole idea of Byzantine fault.

So the thing is that Byzantine well Byzantine fault is one that where process assume a process can do anything. Now I was assuming that you know processing can do anything because you know I didn't know what to assume but the people at SRRI had the contract for building a multiprocess multi- computer system for flying airplanes and so they were the ones who appreciated the need for solving processes that can do malicious things because they they really couldn't assume what it would do. And every time you would get an algorithm and you you'd see, oh, uh, well, this algorithm, you know, try to get an algorithm with three processes, you know, for one fault, you know, you'd find that, you know, oh, you know, this this works and it must be, you know, really couldn't happen in practice. And then you'd be able to find some sequence of plausible failures that would lead the algorithm to be defeated if there were a faulty process.

So you needed four uh and for some reason you know I thought that digital signatures was almost a metaphor in the algorithm that it should be possible you know since we weren't worried about malicious failures but but you know just things that happen randomly that there should be some way of of writing a digital signature algorithm that uh you know would have a sufficiently low probability of of failing but I never worked on that and nobody else ever did. So that those that algorithm was was pretty much ignored because digital signatures were very expensive in those days. I don't know what's being done now because you know computers are digital signatures are just computing and computing is you know is cheap. Uh but uh I remember at some point I happened to be communicating with someone who was an engineer at Boeing and I asked whether they knew about those results and he said yes when that he in fact uh was the one at Boeing who would read that paper and his reaction was oh we need four four computers.

Uh but at any rate I realized that this was an important result and it should be well known and I had learned one thing from Dystra. uh Dy, you know, one of the things I learned from Dystra, he wrote this paper called the the dining philosophers problem. And that paper got a lot of attention, but the dining philosophers problem, I won't go into what it is, but I think the basic problem uh was not particularly interesting, but it had a cute story to it. It involved a bunch of philosophers sitting around a table with uh some funny kind of spaghetti that it required two forks and there was one fork between you know each fork would be shared with two people and uh but and I think realized it was because of that cute story that that problem was was popular.

And so I decided that you know this this our work needed a cute story you know a nice story and I in invented Byzantine generals with the idea being that you have a group of you know for the for the one failure case you have four generals who have to agree whether or not to attack. uh and if they all attack uh they'll win the battle. But if only some of them attack or if even if three of them attack they'll win the battle. But if only two attack you know they would lose. But one of the the generals might be uh a traitor. And so how could you you know solve this problem? And so so it's phrased in terms of these generals having to communicate and decide whether to make the single decision whether to uh attack or or retreat. Um and you know I called it the Byzantine generals uh problem.

Host: I saw in your your uh notes about the problem that there was maybe a subset of the problem or a prior version that was called the Chinese general's problem or something like that.

Leslie Lamport: Oh yeah. that yeah I was uh there was a different problem that uh Jim Gray uh described uh as an impossibility result basically it's called the Chinese generals problem and I I won't bother going into what it is and so that gave me the idea of generals uh I actually initially thought of the idea of Albanian generals because at that time Albania was a black hole as far as the rest of the world was concerned. It was a communist regime, a part of the the Soviet uh block, but it was even more Soviet than the Soviet Republic and and and you know, more restrictive. So someone uh my boss said, "Well, you know, there are Albanians in the world, so shouldn't that so should have a different name?" And then I I realized that Byzantine there aren't any Byzantiums Byzantines around and that was the perfect name.

Host: So it's interesting to me in the story that because this isn't the first time the problem was specified but it was the first time that you had named it uh um gave it a good catchy name essentially and and uh you know added some additional results. What was it that you saw in that problem that made it interesting? Or rather like how do you know that a problem is worth putting extra time into?

Leslie Lamport: Oh, well this one it was because you know the it was obvious that people were going to be building that computers were going to fly our airplane fly airplanes and the reason in fact because was was that this was during the the time of the oil crisis in the 70s and that they knew people knew that they could build more energyefficient planes by reducing the size the the size of the control surfaces. But that made the plane aerodynamically unstable. Uh and a a pilot couldn't make the all the adjustments needed to, you know, to keep it flying, but a computer could. So it was clear the future was, you know, airplanes were going to be flying be flown by computers as they are, you know, today. uh and uh people didn't realize they thought that oh if you want to be able to tolerate one fault you just use three computers and they didn't realize that you know with arbitrary faults you need four and so that a really important result and that's why I believe that it it needed to to be well known.

Problem Solving & Paxos

Host: generally when you look at the problems that you are solving with your work Um, how'd you decide? Cuz if you're working at a company, you can decide based off of maybe the I guess the impact to the company like is it going to make more money or save cost or something like that. But I wonder in your work across your career um you know think about the bakery problem or some of your later work as well. How do you know it's it's so open-ended. How do you know which problems are uh the ones worthwhile?

Leslie Lamport: Throughout my career, I worked for private companies, you know, not, you know, not in academia or or for the government. Uh, and so some problems arose because of, you know, sometimes, you know, an engineer would have a problem and come come to me. And so, uh, you know, DIS Paxos, for example, was was a case of that that somebody actually wanted an algorithm to do what it did.

Host: You mentioned earlier Paxos and I know that's one of your your most famous uh works. Curious about the story behind maybe that paper and the problem you're solving.

Leslie Lamport: Well, the problem I was trying is exactly the same problem as I was solving in the the Byzantine general's work uh basically building a a fault tolerant state machine. But by that time it was you know the in the faults that interested industry were ones where failure meant that the computer just stopped the not not that it did arbitrary things. So uh the paxos is an algorithm for uh for for building fault tolerance systems for handling that class of faults.

uh and the people I was working at was which the it was the deck circ was in which I joined in 1985 and they built a uh one of the first operating systems that uh was a a distributed operating system. Uh so that um basically everybody had the they basically these are the people who had come from Xerox Park and had invented personal computing but they also had the notion of distributed personal computing and they invented the Ethernet uh you know for that. So they basically all of the uh computers in the building were on a single Ethernet network and shared a common storage uh and they had an algorithm for maintaining consistency of that storage and I didn't believe well they didn't have an algorithm they had an operating system with code that did that um and I didn't believe that what they what they did was possible. Uh, namely I I didn't think um well I forget exactly why I didn't think it was possible but at any rate I started you know trying to uh come up with a a an impossibility proof and start solidity proof well and an algorithm to solve this would have to do this and in order to do this it would have to do that and at some point I stopped and said oh this isn't a proof. It it can't. This is an algorithm that does it.

Host: You said that they had code but not an algorithm.

Leslie Lamport: Yeah.

Host: Um what do you mean by that?

Leslie Lamport: when most people sit down and start writing programs that you know they start by thinking in terms of code and one of the things I learned fairly early in my career I don't remember exactly when that back in in the days when I started writing algorithms people talked about people were calling them programs and I was probably calling them programs too I mean I remember then at some point I realized that that wasn't wasn't talking about programs. I was talking about al interested in algorithms.

Uh and an algorithm is something that's more abstract than a pro than than a program. U an algorithm can be you know a program is written in in some particular code. But an algorithm can be implemented if programs written in any any kinds of code. It's it's something that's that's at a higher level of of of abstraction. And of course I like that because abstraction is something I'm I was good at, you know, even without realizing that that's what I was doing.

Uh and so what I've spent a large part of my career basically from maybe about you know 2000 or so onward uh was getting people who build concurrent systems uh to not just write code but to have an algorithm. Now a system does lots of things but there should be some kernel of the of the program that's that's involved with synchronizing the different processes or the distributed system the different computers and that code you know is very hard to get you know the you know that correct so you you don't want to think in terms of code because static coding, you know, conflates, you know, a lot of issues that are irrelevant to the concurrency aspect. And so you should be thinking, you know, first get an algorithm that does that synchronization and then implement that algorithm.

Host: I was looking at the Paxos paper and uh some of your notes about it and I saw that um there's a there's an eight-year gap between when you came up with the algorithm and when the the paper was actually published called Part-Time Parliament is the name of the paper. Why why is there an eight-year gap?

Leslie Lamport: Oh, well the re the referees originally said well this paper is okay you know not terribly important but fortunately Butler Lamson realized the importance of the algorithm and together with the idea of you know I guess you can implement anything because it's implementing a state machine uh and you know went about proceed uh procilitizing uh building your systems you know using paxos uh you know and and thinking in terms of state machines and uh so you know I wasn't uh so the idea was getting out so you know I was in no hurry to publish so you know I just let the paper sit and eventually uh there was a new editor that came along and uh uh he said that you know I think the status of the paper was that it was just uh you know it had been accepted but had no and needed revision and uh so he decided that yeah let's you know to to publish it and uh it was eventually published with little some a few things that uh to take well to to mention work that had been done in the in the in the uh interim and what I got is uh got a Keith Marzulo uh you know to do that part for me.

Uh and uh so the story was that this manuscript this was that well the story about Paxos was that you know was a this happened you know centuries ago and you know this manuscript and uh I used that to the effect that you know when something you know the tales of something were I considered obvious and you know not interesting you know the the paper would say it's not clear how the Paxons what the Paxons did you know at this point but Um at any rate and uh so uh and Keith you know kept up the that idea that you know this was a you know a description of this ancient thing and and he wrote a you know a little prefix or a preface or something to to it and uh you know added maybe I think some uh references.

Host: I saw in your writing too when you were talking about presenting the paper initially, you even uh dressed up in like an Indiana Jones style archaeologist. Well, how did that go when you presented about this Paxos uh paper and algorithm?

Leslie Lamport: Well, I think the the lecture may have gone well, but uh I think nobody understood the algorithm where nobody understood the significance of the algorithm.

Host: It sounds like no one understood it except for Butler Lamson. What what did he see that made him unique? I guess.

Leslie Lamport: Well, he had a good understanding of building systems, you know, he really deserved his touring award. He was one of the original people at Xerox Park who were building distributed uh personal computing. He and Chuck Thacker, I think, were probably the two senior people, you know, in that lab.

Paxos vs. Raft

Host: I saw later there was a paper which describes a new algorithm which seems to solve the same problem. The raft paper. I was wondering if you read that and what your thoughts were on on that versus Paxos.

Leslie Lamport: The authors of that actually sent me a draft of the original paper and I looked at it and said uh I forget whether I said send it back to me when you have an algorithm or send that back to me when you have a proof. I I forget which one it was and uh you got the idea and they really they they did write you know add a proof in the paper or not. Uh yeah and I never read future later versions and someone whose judgment I value said you know had read it and said that it's basically it's it's the Paxos paper but no but with some of the the tales left unfinished by the Paxos paper uh by uh you know filled some of the tales filled in but they you know described it in a in a very different.

Hey, the basic idea of the what Paxos works is it's two phases and you're trying to implement a sequence of you know of decisions and it turns out you can do the first phase once for a whole it involves a leader. So um and the leader has to get elected. Uh so but it turns out that you can do the first uh phase once uh and you don't have to do it again as long as you have the same leader. Uh but it's only the second part that you have to do and then you have to elect the the new leader if a new leader fails and do the first part.

So think about it in those two phases. But the way people the way engineers you know like to think about it is well you do this you know you talking about the first part the the second phase you keep doing this uh until the leader fa fails and then you go back then you have to do this thing so it's explaining it in the in the opposite order uh and in fact you know when you start it from from fresh the uh you don't have to do the first uh uh the first phase you can you basically what what's done in the first phase could be just built in into the initial state but you know I think that that's the right you know of those two phases the way to understand it.

Uh but you know the raft people also had this idea that you know raft is better because it's simpler and I I must say that a lot of people say that uh Paxos is hard to understand and I don't understand why. I mean, I've explained it to some people in five minutes and they understood it. At any rate, the raft people said that one of the ideas were simpler because and they even have, you know, taught, you know, Paxos to one class and and uh the raft to another and they took and then yes, the people all the students said that yes, it was more understandable.

Uh the interesting thing about it though is that uh there was a bug discovered in raft and fixed but I believe the algorithm that they found more understandable was one with that bug. So uh made me realize that uh you know what most people you know what does understanding mean and for me understanding means you know you can write a proof of it but what understanding means for most people is warm fuzzy feeling and you know the raft description gave them you know more of a warm fuzzy feeling because you know you you know that that was seems to be the way you know programmers, you know, like to think about the the algorithm, you know, you know, the second phase, you know, first until, you know, you get a failure and uh but the way I describe it is one that helps you get a better understanding of why it actually works.

LaTeX

Host: So, yeah, we talked about a lot of your papers. I know one of your other uh contributions whether you knew it or not at the time was latte and uh building that and something that has impacted the entire academic community. What's the story behind wanting to build latte?

Leslie Lamport: Oh, that was uh very simple. Um, I was wanted I was in the process of starting to write a book and uh it was clear that tech was the basic uh type setting system that one had to use. But you know I felt that I would need macros uh to make tech do what I wanted it to do. And uh so I decide figured with uh been a little extra effort uh I could make the macros usable by other people. The system I had been using before tech it's called scribe and uh that really had the basic idea of scribe was that you describe the logical structure of of the document not and the and scribe will do the formatting. Well, scribe didn't do that great a job of formatting. Uh so, uh but obviously, you know, I like the idea abstraction that it's the ideas that matter, not the text that ma, you know, the the writing that matters, not the type setting.

And so, um, I actually at some point, uh, I met Peter Gordon, Addison Wesley, uh, I'm not sure what what you would call him, but he looks for, you know, books to publish. And, uh, he convinced me that I should write a book on it. And those days, it never occurred to me people would actually spend money for a book about software. But you know what the hell? And what he did was he introduced me to uh a typographic designer at uh Addison Wesley who was responsible for really for the typographic design that's in the standard uh latex styles. You know, basically I just did that in my quote spare time. You know, took me six or nine months or so. I I suppose the uh statute of limitations has run out, but I was really, you know, spent some time working on that when I was allegedly, you know, billing the time to some project that had nothing to do with it.

Writing, Thinking, and Proofs

Host: On the topic of writing, you have a quote that I really enjoy. It's if you're if you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking. And I was curious to hear your thoughts on what you mean by that.

Leslie Lamport: Well, it was really meant for, you know, people building computer systems. You have an idea and you think it's going to work. Uh or you have something that, you know, you think is something that somebody else will you want to use. Well, write a description of it. Uh there's an old maxim that I don't I heard uh that is you know write the instruction manual before you write the program. a great advice. Uh I did not do that uh with latte but it I definitely when I was writing the book and I discovered that something was hard to to describe hard to explain that needed to be changed and I made you know a number of uh of changes to it uh as a result of that but uh I didn't start at the beginning with the instruction manual.

Host: Why is writing conducive to good thinking?

Leslie Lamport: Because it's very easy to uh it's very easy to fool yourself. Uh I mean that underlies my uh my whole idea of of writing proofs. One thing I learned is that you had to write a a correctness proof of an concurrent algorithm. And when my algorithm was starting to get more complicated, the proofs started I started writ PhD in math. I knew how to write proofs and I was starting writing the proofs the way I would normally do. And I realized it just didn't work because there were just so many details involved and I just couldn't keep track of them and whether I had done it.

And so as a computer science know how to deal with concurrency uh it's hierarchical structure and so I devised this hierarchical structure where a proof is uh you know is a sequence of steps each of which has a proof and the proof is either a par well a proof is either a paragraph or a statement a sequence of steps each with its proof and that proof can be either a parag graph or a sequence of steps with its proof and you know so you break the whole problem up into these smaller pieces. So there's never any question of you know where is this coming from. You know you're stating that this step follows from you know this step this step this step this step and if it does not follow from that step your proof is wrong. The theorem might be correct but but means your proof is wrong.

Um well you know so I've discovered that worked great on writing my proofs of programs but I decided to really you know I also write proofs of theorems you know you know uh you know think proofs that are things that are you know more like ordinary math and I started trying that on them and I discovered it worked beautifully. So when I started to to try to convince mathematicians to write these proofs uh I started in one small seminar I went you know won't describe what it was about but uh and I I described this this proof through maybe uh 20 mathematicians or something their reaction shocked me they became angry I really thought that they might physically attack me.

So I believe that what's going on is that when pe I mean I believe that's totally irrational and when people act irrationally it tends to be out of fear and what I believe people are afraid of is that mathematicians are afraid of is that they're going to have to write their proofs to convince a a computer program and and in fact you know and I give it a one of those talks I gave you know I say very clearly this doesn't have to be you don't have to be any more formal than you do you can write the exact same thing proof you know but it's just a matter of organizing things and it's very simple you know hierarchical structure and then when you're using a fact mention that you're using that nothing about formalism or anything you know after I gave that talk someone got up and said I don't want to have to write my proof my my proofs for a computer program.

And in fact, it's more work doing that because the reason it's more work is that it reveals what you haven't said and that there's steps in there that you know, you may think they're obvious, but you haven't written them down. And if you believe something is correct but don't really if you if you think you know something but don't write it down, you only think you know it. And that's where errors come in. You know, that's where that one-third of your paper's errors can, you know, you know, uh, come in because it really makes you honest.

Career Reflections: Industry & Academia

Host: When I look across your career, I think you had a lot of contributions people might expect might come from academia, these papers and things, but you did uh all of your work in industry. Why did you not see yourself as a academic and more of uh working for industry?

Leslie Lamport: Well, I started out programming uh and I eventually got jobs where took me into what we now call computer science. At the time I never even realized that uh there was you know there could be a computer a science of computing. Uh it wasn't until you know maybe until mid to late '7s that I realized yes there was a computer science and know as a computer scientist. Um but it never seemed to me that like computer science was a an academic subject. At some point I, you know, had to make a choice between doing computer science and without calling it computer science or or teaching math at a at a university. And I I chose for random fairly random reasons to you do computer science. Uh so it you know for the first I don't know well till maybe the mid80s or something it just didn't seem to me that you know you know computer science was something that people needed to go to to a university to learn. And uh I suppose afterwards that I was sort of I guess I I just didn't think it would be fun teaching computer science. So

Host: I saw in your your writing you had a footnote that said somewhere that you you you felt like a a failure at some point because you you wanted to develop this grand theory of concurrency and you never discovered it. Um do do you still feel that way or what are your thoughts on that that footnote?

Leslie Lamport: lots of people who you know a large percentage of the people who were doing things like I was doing which is not a large number of people uh there's this notion that uh they're looking for the touring machine of concurrency you know the touring machine was this abstraction which really captured what computing was uh and they were looking for something that would be the you know the touring machine of of concurrent computing and you know nobody succeeded. I mean there are some people who think they've succeeded. Uh the patronets are are something that uh I guess I don't have time to to explain but uh there was a big it was big in the 70s. Uh, and I was actually surprised to think that there's still a large community of people doing uh, patriets. But what I now realize is that patriets and most of the things that people were doing was really language-based.

And I was never interested in languages. I'm interested in what the language is expressing. And you know I realized in some sense you know maybe I've realized what the touring machine of of of computing is state machines. Uh state machines are a little bit different the way I now describe them. They don't have commands. They just have a state and a and a next state relation. Uh even simpler than talking about commands and and and values and stuff. Uh and you know to me you know that's the uh that's the touring machine of of con of concurrency but it uh it it doesn't have the function that that touring machines offer because it it doesn't what touring machines do is uh describe what's you know what's possible uh and state machines can describe anything including things that are not possible.

Uh and and in fact uh the there's a good reason for that. Um for example uh when I describe a uh an algorithm I will talk about you know the values of a variable you know can be any integer. Now you can implement the program where you have any integer uh but that makes the but talking about you know computer integers would complicate things unnecessarily. The people have this funny idea that you know because something is infinite it's more complicated. They got it backwards. Infinity was introduced to simplify things. You know the first thing you learn is arithmetic. You're learning arithmetic with an infinite number of integers because if you restricted to a finite set of integers, arithmetic becomes much more complicated.

So you know the abstractions of mathematics uh which people find you know because they don't have the proper training in mathematics find you know difficult uh are really what's simplifying things and that's what you what you use this mathematics the state machine is described for me by me using mathematics that's the right you know the the most powerful way of doing But computer people and computer scientists and programmers are really hung up on languages and so they are looking for you know they invent all sorts of languages and they're all describable and in fact if you want to give them a semantics you would do it in terms of a state machine and they just think that this uh you know this language ES improves your thinking. uh it doesn't you may I mean there are reasons why you use computer languages and you don't write your your programs code in math and they involve basically efficiency but for understanding you know you can't build math you can't beat math and you know attempts to uh do it by something that looks like a programming language uh is is just the wrong way to to to deal when you're trying to deal with concurrency.

Host: When I look at uh everything that you've written and all the stories, there's these little anecdotes. There's things where you say things like you you never considered yourself smart, but you noticed that other kids had an awful time understanding things or yeah, there's a problem that you solved where someone else had difficulties, but you don't view your contribution as a brilliant one or anything like that. And that that uh doesn't connect with me because you've also won a touring award and done all these amazing things. So, how could that be that you, you know, just merely discover things and are are not smart yet you've achieved so much?

Leslie Lamport: Well, this general thing that, you know, psychologists talk about uh is that when someone is good at something, they don't realize how they're good they are at it because it's simple to them. There's the opposite one that uh people who are bad at something think they're better than they are because they're bad at it. Or to put uh a little bit more concisely, stupid people think they're smart because they're too stupid to realize they're not. Uh my the gift that I have is not in some sense raw intelligence. It's abstraction and it's only recently, you know, the last 10 or so years that I realized how much better I am at that than other people, most other people.

Host: At this point, you've experienced so much and you when you look back on your career. If you could go back to yourself when you just graduated college and give yourself some advice knowing what you know now, what would you say?

Leslie Lamport: One thing I've learned fairly early in my life is that I shouldn't waste time trying to answer questions that I don't have to answer. I don't think about, you know, what I should have done because uh that's a question that I don't have to answer.

Outro

Host: Thank you for listening to the podcast. It's a passion project of mine that I've really enjoyed building. Another passion project that I've been working on kind of in secret is building an ergonomic keyboard that I wish existed and I finally have a prototype. So, I'd love to show you what we've built. It's ultra low profile and ergonomic. and I couldn't find anything like it on the market. So, that's why we built it. I'll put a link to the keyboard in the description. You can take a look and learn more about the project there. We could definitely use your support. Also, if you have any feedback for me about the show, I'd love to hear it. Comments on YouTube have led to guests coming on like Ilia Gregoric and David Fowler. I wasn't aware of them until someone dropped a comment. Also, feedback in the comments helped me learn to reduce the number of cliffhers in the intros. So, your comments definitely make a difference. Please keep letting me know what you'd like to see more of in the show, and I'll see you in the next episode.


n5321 | 2026年2月27日 12:13

A practical guide to prompt engineering


We’ve all been there. You ask an AI chatbot a question, hoping for a brilliant answer, and get something so generic it's basically useless. It’s frustrating, right? The gap between a fantastic response and a dud often comes down to one thing: the quality of your prompt.

This is what prompt engineering is all about. It’s the skill of crafting clear and effective instructions to guide an AI model toward exactly what you want. This isn't about finding some secret magic words; it's about learning how to communicate with AI clearly.

This guide will walk you through what prompt engineering is, why it’s a big deal, and the core techniques you can start using today. And while learning to write great prompts is a valuable skill, it's also worth knowing that some tools are built to handle the heavy lifting for you. For instance, the eesel AI blog writer can turn a single keyword into a complete, publish-ready article, taking care of all the advanced prompting behind the scenes.

The eesel AI blog writer dashboard, a tool for automated prompt engineering, shows a user inputting a keyword to generate a full article.

What is prompt engineering?

So, what prompt engineering is?

Simply put, it’s the process of designing and refining prompts (prompts) to get a specific, high-quality output from a generative AI model.


It's way more than just asking a question. It's a discipline that blends precise instructions, relevant context, and a bit of creative direction to steer the AI.

Think of it like being a director for an actor (the AI). You wouldn't just hand them a script and walk away. You’d give them motivation, background on the character, and the tone you’re looking for to get a compelling performance. A prompt engineer does the same for an AI. You provide the context and guardrails it needs to do its best work.

An infographic explaining the concept of prompt engineering, where a user acts as a director guiding an AI model.

The whole point is to make AI responses more accurate, relevant, and consistent. It transforms a general-purpose tool into a reliable specialist for whatever task you have in mind, whether that’s writing code, summarizing a report, or creating marketing copy. As large language models (LLMs) have gotten more powerful, the need for good prompt engineering has exploded right alongside them.

Why prompt engineering is so important

It’s pretty simple: the quality of what you get out of an AI is directly tied to the quality of what you put in. Better prompts lead to better, more useful results. It's not just a nice-to-have skill; it’s becoming essential for anyone who wants to get real value from AI tools.

Here are the main benefits of getting good at prompt engineering:

  • Greater control and predictability: AI can sometimes feel like a slot machine. You pull the lever and hope for the best. Well-crafted prompts change that. They reduce the randomness in AI responses, making the output align with your specific goals, tone, and format. You get what you want, not what the AI thinks you want.

  • Improved accuracy and relevance: By giving the AI enough context, you guide it toward the right information. This is key to avoiding "hallucinations," which is a fancy term for when an AI confidently makes stuff up and presents false information as fact. Good prompts keep the AI grounded in reality.

  • Better efficiency: Think about how much time you've wasted tweaking a vague prompt over and over. Getting the right answer on the first or second try is a massive time-saver. Clear, effective prompts cut down on the back-and-forth, letting you get your work done faster.

The main challenge, of course, is that manually refining prompts can be a grind. It takes a lot of trial and error and a good understanding of how a particular model "thinks." But learning a few foundational techniques can put you way ahead of the curve.

Don't get me wrong, being able to engineer a good prompt is an important skill. If I had to guess, I'd say it accounts for about 25% of getting great results from a large language model.

Core prompt engineering techniques explained

Ready to improve your prompting game? This is your foundational toolkit. We'll move from the basics to some more advanced methods that can dramatically improve your results.

Zero-shot vs. few-shot prompt engineering

This is one of the first distinctions you’ll run into.

Zero-shot prompting is what most of us do naturally. You ask the AI to do something without giving it any examples of what a good answer looks like. You’re relying on the model's pre-existing knowledge to figure it out. For instance: "Classify this customer review as positive, negative, or neutral: 'The product arrived on time, but it was smaller than I expected.'" It's simple and direct but can sometimes miss the nuance you're after.

Few-shot prompting, on the other hand, is like giving the AI a little study guide before the test. You provide a few examples (or "shots") to show it the exact pattern or style you want it to follow. This is incredibly effective when you need a specific format. Before giving it your new customer review, you might show it a few examples first:

  • Review: "I love this! Works perfectly." -> Sentiment: Positive

  • Review: "It broke after one use." -> Sentiment: Negative

  • Review: "The shipping was fast." -> Sentiment: Neutral

By seeing these examples, the AI gets a much clearer picture of what you're asking for, leading to a more accurate classification of your new review.

An infographic comparing zero-shot prompt engineering (no examples) with few-shot prompt engineering (with examples).

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompt engineering

This one sounds complicated, but the idea is brilliant in its simplicity. Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting encourages the model to break down a complex problem into a series of smaller, logical steps before spitting out the final answer. It essentially asks the AI to "show its work."

Why does this work so well? Because it mimics how humans reason through tough problems. We don’t just jump to the answer; we think it through step-by-step. Forcing the AI to do the same dramatically improves its accuracy on tasks that involve logic, math, or any kind of multi-step reasoning.

An infographic illustrating how Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompt engineering breaks down a problem into logical steps.

The wildest part is how easy it is to trigger this. The classic zero-shot CoT trick is just to add the phrase "Let's think step-by-step" at the end of your prompt. That simple addition can be the difference between a right and wrong answer for complex questions.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for prompt engineering

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is a powerful technique, especially for businesses. In a nutshell, RAG connects an AI to an external, up-to-date knowledge base that wasn't part of its original training data. Think of it as giving the AI an open-book test instead of making it rely purely on its memory.

Here’s how it works: when you ask a question, the system first retrieves relevant information from a specific data source (like your company’s private documents or help center). Then, it augments your original prompt by adding that fresh information as context. Finally, the LLM uses that rich, new context to generate a highly relevant and accurate answer.

An infographic showing the three steps of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) prompt engineering: retrieve, augment, and generate.

This is huge for businesses because it means AI can provide answers based on current, proprietary information. It's the technology that powers tools like eesel AI's AI internal chat, which can learn from a company’s private Confluence or Notion pages to answer employee questions accurately and securely. RAG ensures the AI isn't just smart; it's smart about your business.

The eesel AI internal chat using Retrieval-Augmented Generation for internal prompt engineering, answering a question with a source link.

Best practices for prompt engineering

Knowing the advanced techniques is great, but day-to-day success often comes down to nailing the fundamentals. Here are some practical tips you can use right away to write better prompts.

Define a clear persona, audience, and goal

Don't make the AI guess what you want. Be explicit about the role it should play, who it's talking to, and what you need it to do.

  • Persona: Tell the AI who it should be. For example, "You are a senior copywriter with 10 years of experience in B2B SaaS." This sets the tone and expertise level.

  • Audience: Specify who the response is for. For instance, "...you are writing an email to a non-technical CEO." This tells the AI to avoid jargon and be direct.

  • Goal: State the desired action or output clearly, usually with a strong verb. For example, "Generate three subject lines for an email that announces a new feature."

Provide specific context and constraints

The AI only knows what you tell it. Don't assume it understands implied context. Give it all the background information it needs to do the job right.

  • Context: If you're asking it to write about a product, give it the product's name, key features, and target audience. The more detail, the better.

  • Constraints: Set clear boundaries. Tell it the maximum word count ("Keep the summary under 200 words"), the desired format ("Format the output as a Markdown table"), and the tone ("Use a casual and encouraging tone").

Use formatting to structure your prompt

A giant wall of text is hard for humans to read, and it’s hard for an AI to parse, too. Use simple formatting to create a clear structure within your prompt. Markdown (like headers and lists) or even simple labels can make a huge difference.

For example, you could structure your prompt like this: "INSTRUCTIONS: Summarize the following article." "CONTEXT: The article is about the future of remote work." "ARTICLE: [paste article text here]" "OUTPUT FORMAT: A bulleted list of the three main takeaways."

This helps the model understand the different parts of your request and what to do with each piece of information.

Iterate and refine your prompts

Your first prompt is almost never your best one. Prompt engineering is an iterative process. Think of it as a conversation. If the first response isn't quite right, don't just give up. Tweak your prompt, add more context, or try a different phrasing. Experiment with different techniques to see what works best for your specific task. Each iteration will get you closer to the perfect output. <quote text="There are a lot of tips to remember in these two guides, so I tried to 80/20 them all and I came up with 5 questions I usually run through when I'm putting a prompt together:

  1. Have you specified a persona for the model to emulate?

  2. Have you provided a clear and unambiguous action for the model to take?

  3. Have you listed out any requirements for the output?

  4. Have you clearly explained the situation you are in and what you are trying to achieve with this task?

  5. Where possible, have you provided three examples of what you are looking for?

The initials on each of the bolded words spells PARSE which is just an easy acronym to remember when you need them." sourceIcon="https://www.iconpacks.net/icons/2/free-reddit-logo-icon-2436-thumb.png" sourceName="Reddit" sourceLink="https://www.reddit.com/r/PromptEngineering/comments/1byj8pd/comment/kz7j6kv/"%3E

How the eesel AI blog writer automates prompt engineering

Learning all these manual techniques is powerful, but it’s also a lot of work, especially for complex tasks like creating SEO-optimized content at scale. This is where specialized tools come in to handle the heavy lifting for you.

The eesel AI blog writer is a key example. It has advanced prompt engineering built right into its core, so you don't have to become a prompt wizard to get high-quality results. Instead of spending hours crafting and refining complex, multi-part prompts, you just enter a keyword and your website URL. That’s it.

A screenshot of the eesel AI blog writer, a tool that automates advanced prompt engineering for content creation.

Behind the scenes, the eesel AI blog writer is running a series of sophisticated, automated prompts to generate a complete article. Here’s what that looks like:

  • Context-aware research: It acts like a specialized RAG system designed for content creation. It automatically researches your topic in real-time to pull in deep, nuanced insights, so you get a well-researched article, not just surface-level AI filler.

  • Automatic asset generation: It prompts AI image models to create relevant visuals and infographics for your post and automatically structures complex data into clean, easy-to-read tables.

  • Authentic social proof:

    It searches for real quotes from Reddit threads and embeds relevant YouTube videos directly into the article. This adds a

    layer of human experience

    and credibility that’s nearly impossible to achieve with manual prompting alone.

    An infographic detailing the automated prompt engineering workflow of the eesel AI blog writer, from keyword to publish-ready post.

The results speak for themselves. By using this tool, our own eesel AI blog grew from 700 to 750,000 daily impressions in just three months.

It's entirely free to try, and paid plans start at just $99 for 50 blog posts. It's built to give you the power of expert prompt engineering without the learning curve.

The future of prompt engineering

The field of prompt engineering is evolving fast. As AI models get smarter and more intuitive, the need for hyper-specific, "magic word" prompts might fade away. The models will get better at understanding our natural language and intent without needing so much hand-holding.

We’re already seeing a shift toward what’s called Answer Engine Optimization (AEO). This is less about tricking an algorithm and more about structuring your content with clear, direct answers that AI overviews (like in Google Search) and conversational tools can easily find and feature. It’s about making your content the most helpful and authoritative source on a topic.

An infographic comparing Traditional SEO, prompt engineering, and Answer Engine Optimization (AEO).

So, while the specific techniques we use today might change, the core skill won't. Being able to communicate clearly, provide good context, and define a clear goal will always be the key to getting the most out of AI, no matter how advanced it gets.

For those who prefer a visual walkthrough, there are excellent resources that break down these concepts further. The video below provides a comprehensive guide to prompt engineering, covering everything from the basics to more advanced strategies.

A comprehensive guide to prompt engineering, covering everything from the basics to more advanced strategies.

Prompt engineering is the key to unlocking consistent, high-quality results from generative AI. It's the difference between fighting with a tool and having a true creative partner.

Understanding the foundational techniques like zero-shot, few-shot, CoT, and RAG gives you the control to tackle almost any manual prompting task. But as we've seen, for high-value, repetitive work like creating amazing SEO content, specialized tools are emerging to automate all that complexity for you. These platforms have the expertise baked in, letting you focus on strategy instead of syntax.

Stop wrestling with prompts and start publishing. Generate your first blog post with the eesel AI blog writer and see the difference for yourself.


n5321 | 2026年2月11日 23:59

AI_era

产业界完全跑到学术界前面去了!

社交媒体上铺天盖地的vibe coding。今天惊叹chatgpt,明天惊叹deepseek,后天有是gemini,接下来是claude,然后又是claudbot。一开始只要chat,能够聊天交流,copy and paste就可以了,接下来就是promp engineering来了,然后又说是AI-assistant,是MCP,接着SKILLS又冒出来了。

想要去了解AI的本质,可以应用的领域,他的competence,and constrain,他的logic!想要对他有一个稍微清晰一点的理解。常规情况下都是去找基本领域内的经典书籍来看。

但是没有,几乎没有!能找到的关于vibe coding的books寥寥。不时地有人惊叹LLM的能力,局限。但是没有books,没有写得漂亮的books!

这像是90年代的香港电影。

一大帮电影从业人员拼命拍电影。没有详细地计划,没有精细地审核,就是不停地写剧本,赶拍摄,有上映。最后成就了香港电影的黄金年代。

皇冠上的顶峰一定包括周星驰,那个几乎每一部都是经典,但是没有拿到过一个奖项的明星。

这是一个遍地机会的coding era!


n5321 | 2026年1月29日 22:55

我和我的师友_聂卫平

刘仁喜欢看我下棋

  当时任北京市委第二书记的刘仁伯伯经常叫我去下棋。我妈妈原是第一机床厂党委书记,一机局局长,北京市委委员,可能是这种关系他知道我会下棋。不过他很怪,他自己从来不下,而是叫我和他的秘书宋汝棼下,他在旁边观看。那时我家和宋汝棼家挨着,他们家在胡同口,我们家在里面,刘仁来了,打个电话,我就过去。

  每年春节,北京市委都要在人民大会堂搞联欢,刘仁就叫人把我请去下棋,算个表演项目。有一年国庆节,他把我叫到北海公园,他当时负责指挥天安门的庆祝活动,指挥部就设在这里。不知为什么那天他不是很高兴,有点怨言,秘书过来告诉他那边的游行开始了,他说我不管,继续看我和宋汝棼下棋。

  刘仁特别喜欢我,曾经把一副日本人送他的围棋转送给我,后来这副棋在抄家时丢了。刘仁和我的关系在文化大革命初期给我们家带来了意想不到的后果。

  那天我回家看见家门口刷满了大字报,让我爸爸妈妈交代和刘仁的“黑关系”,交代他到我们家都讲了哪些“黑话”,做了哪些“黑指示”,布置了哪些“黑任务”。可悲的是我也认为刘仁是个大黑帮,因为当时报纸上都这么讲,北京市委背着毛主席把北京搞成了“独立王国”,还揭露出大量“事实”,不由得你不信。

  刘仁到我家来都是来看我下棋,从来没有单独和我爸爸妈妈待在一起过,如果有什么黑指示,我也应该听到。于是我就反复回忆他所说过的话,是不是里面有什么,比如“吃饭了吗?”是不是联络暗号,就像《红灯记》里李玉和问卖木梳的“有桃木的吗?”一样。那时幼稚得不得了,弄张报纸,也要横过来倒过去地看,总想发现点问题,比如反动标语之类的。即使这样,我也没发现刘仁有什么黑话。

  紧接着我们家被抄,我爸爸被剃成“阴阳头”,胸前挂着“黑帮分子聂春荣”的大木牌。我看见爸爸脸上的肌肉痛苦地抽搐着,黄豆大的汗珠一滴滴落在脚前的水泥地上……这痛苦的一幕我永远也忘不了。

  有一天我爸爸和我谈话,问我相信不相信爸爸妈妈都是好人,是革命的,是跟毛主席的。我回答相信,可心里也很矛盾,看人家贴了那么多大字报,我是红卫兵,对毛主席无限信仰,无限热爱。我爸爸接着说,他们之所以成为“黑帮”,跟他们工作中可能得罪了一些人有关,但主要还是刘仁到过我们家。在那些造反派的眼里,你不是黑帮刘仁怎么会到你家里来呢?而刘仁到我们家里来就是因为看我下棋,这一下我成了“罪魁祸首”。最后我爸爸叫我去找一下李立三,把这个情况向他反映一下,争取得到解放。因为当时领导北京新市委的李雪峰是华北局第一书记,而李立三是华北局书记处书记,想通过李立三向李雪锋打个招呼。我一想,这事是我惹起的,只能我去,于是就去找李立三。

  我刚拐进李立三家的胡同口,就看见墙上刷满了大字报,比我们家可厉害多了,说他历史上就曾反对毛主席的革命路线,是“立三路线”的代表,这可更不得了。我正在犹豫,就听见他家院里传来造反派的喊声,我就没敢进去。我想不能再找黑帮了,否则会犯更大的错误。回家后我告诉爸爸说没见到,具体的都没敢讲。

  在这之后,我在劳动人民文化宫见到李立三,他正在散步,我发现他后正想躲,他却看见了我,老远地就叫我小聂。我当时心里很害怕,和他说了两句马上就走了。没想到这是我最后一次见到李立三,现在想起来感到非常内疚。

  从“文革”开始以来,我所熟悉的许多叔叔、伯伯陆续被打成了“黑帮分子”,除了刘仁、李立三,还有张劲夫、金明、宋汝棼等等,就连我所敬爱的陈老总也被造反派揪斗过,我想我这人真绝,怎么认识这么多“黑帮”?!

  中学时期的朋友

  1968年,几月我记不清了,那时中学的红卫兵已经分化成好多派,各派之间经常发生一些“派仗”。我本身属于逍遥派,对那些活动基本上不参加,最多是凑个热闹。这时我们班分来了两个学生,一个叫习近平,一个叫刘卫平,他们原是八一学校的,后八一学校因所谓“高干子弟学校”被解散,他们才被分到我们二十五中。习近平是习仲勋的儿子,他爸爸当时可是有名的大“黑帮”。刘卫平是刘震上将的儿子,他爸爸也因和林彪有过节,受到林彪的迫害。当时不论搞什么活动,一开场都要敬毛主席万寿无疆,敬林副主席身体健康。敬毛主席时刘卫平跟着喊,敬林副主席时他就不喊,他觉得林彪是个坏蛋,这在当时可是“大逆不道”的,没人敢这样,所以都觉得他太“傻”了。而我爸爸也是“黑帮”,可能是这个原因,我们成了好朋友,我们三个名字的最后一个字都是平,人家就称我们“三平”。我们在班上是最“黑”的了,当时班上的人都看不起我们,也不敢沾我们,我们也看不起他们,但是和校外的老红卫兵联系很多,这主要是习近平和刘卫平的关系。在他们俩的影响下,我的感情明显地转向老红卫兵了。

  有一天忽然传来一个消息,说三十八中有地、富、反、坏分子集会造反,号召各校的老红卫兵前去和他们辩论。我们三个按照约定的时间真的去了,到了那里一看,各校来的老红卫兵真多,有好几百,当时觉得特振奋人心。我们把自行车锁好就跟着进到学校去了,操场上站的全是我们的人,没看见一个所谓的地、富、反、坏分子。

  我们正在得意,忽然之间,礼堂的门大开,好几百人拿着棍子从里面喊着冲出来,见人就打。我们虽然人比他们多,但没有准备,也没有组织,没有指挥,在他们有组织、有准备的“突然袭击”下,顿时成了乌合之众。我们三人转身就朝锁车的地方跑,我和习近平动作快,逃了出来,而刘卫平跑得慢了一步,差点被打成脑震荡。我们还没和人家碰面,一下子就被人家打散了。后来和已经当了福建省委副书记的习近平谈及此事,都感慨当初要不是跑得快,也就没有现在的戏了,我们可以说是患难之交了。

  还有一次遇险,是在上方山云水洞,时间也是在1968年。当时我们学校白克刚的哥哥白克明带了几个同学从哈尔滨来,他是哈尔滨军事工程学院的学生,他们听说上方山有个云水洞,要去那里探险,白克刚把我也叫上了。我记得很清楚,当时正是秋天,满山的野果都熟了,我们一边摘一边吃,高兴得不得了。

  中午我们在山上一个劳改大队打尖吃饭,劳改大队的管教干部听说我们要去云水洞,就跟我们讲,战备时洞里可以藏几个军,还说从这个洞口进去,那边可以从几百公里外的张家口出来,当年外国有两个探险队进去都没能出来,就在前些日子,北京工业大学的就死了两个等等,他讲得很邪乎,意思是想吓住我们,没想到这更刺激了我们的好奇心。他见我们执意要去,就告诫我们说,在洞里不要大声讲话,否则一产生共振就会引起塌方,并劝我们过了六七洞就不要往里走了。我们离开劳改大队,来到一个尼姑庵,洞口就在尼姑庵的一座神像的后面,这有点像电影里的暗道似的。我们在尼姑庵住了一夜,第二天早晨进了洞。

  洞里特别黑,我们带的装有五节电池的大电筒都不管用,幸好带了马灯,这也不知是哪位有先见之明。过了几个洞,果然看见地上尽是骷髅和死人骨头,那情景真是恐怖极了。我们还听见下面老有水响,用电筒照却看不见,后来听人说那是暗河,掉下去就完了,尸体都找不到。现在想起来真有点后怕,那时候还小,反而觉得特别刺激,特别来劲儿。走着走着,我突然发现我和其他人失去了联络,我用电筒打出去,光就像消失在宇宙黑洞里似的,什么都看不见,我自己也好像在宇宙空间,四周一片黑暗。我想这一下完了,我根本就不认识回去的路,这里有无数的洞穴和岔路,就像迷魂阵一样,最后只能饿死,想到这我真有点害怕了。就在这时白克明提着马灯找我来了,使我大难不死。后来白克明当了中宣部副部长,我见他问还记不记得在云水洞救我,他说记不很清楚了,我说你是我的救命恩人。他笑了笑。

  金庸和沈君山

  沈君山先生是台湾清华大学校长,比我大20岁。据说他是台湾有名的“四大公子”之一,他才华出众,风流倜傥。他母亲抗战时死在重庆,追悼会是由周恩来亲自主持的。我和沈先生是在金庸家认识的。

  说起来很有意思,金庸很喜欢下围棋,是个超级棋迷,以至在他的小说里经常有关于围棋的描写,甚至还把棋子当成大侠的暗器,甚为有趣。

  1983年我正在广州进行“新体育杯”的卫冕战,他突然托人转告我,要在从化拜我为师。我以为他不过是想和我学学棋,而且我也想认识他,于是就赶到从化。一见面,他真的就要像他在小说里描写的那样行大礼,三叩九拜,举行拜师仪式。他比我大二十多岁,这我怎么受得了,我立刻阻止了他。我说拜我为师可以,但不要磕头了。就这样我成了金庸的老师,以后金庸一见到我就以“师父”相称。我们成了很好的朋友。

  1984年“新体育杯”的决赛就是在香港金庸的家中进行的,那年是钱宇平获得了挑战权。当时陈祖德正在他家养病,罗建文陪着他。金庸知道我爱吃螃蟹,专门在家里请我吃了顿螃蟹。那顿饭从下午五点一直吃到晚上十点半,我一共吃了十三只,金庸一直在旁边陪着。那天有两个菲律宾佣人对我稍有怠慢之意,第二天金庸的太太就把她们“炒”了。金庸和沈君山也是很好的朋友,我就是由金庸介绍认识了沈君山先生。沈先生不仅喜欢围棋,也喜欢桥牌,而且造诣很深,这也正合我意,我们一下子就聊到一起,有很多共同语言。

  1987年夏天,香港搞了一个“应氏杯”青少年围棋比赛,我作为嘉宾被邀请参加。沈君山先生也去了,香港方面知道我们都喜欢打桥牌,于是特意给我们安排了一场桥牌比赛。那时大陆和台湾的关系和现在不一样,国民党的所谓“戡乱”条例还没有取消,两岸还处于“敌对”状态。特别是他们知道我经常和邓小平、胡耀邦等中共高层领导在一起打牌,以为我有什么政治背景,而沈君山先生是台湾对大陆决策机构的重要人物,而且有传闻他可能出任台湾当局的重要职务,所以我们两个搭档打桥牌成了很敏感的一件事。

  比赛那天,来了很多记者,我从来没见过为了一场桥牌赛来了那么多记者,而且其中大部分是所谓的“政治”记者。沈君山先生对记者讲了一句话,我认为讲得很好。他说:政治是随时都有可能发生变化的,而围棋和桥牌是不会变的。我没想到他会讲出政治色彩这么浓的话来,据说这话传到蒋经国那里,蒋听后勃然大怒,说沈君山被我“统战”了,并下了一道手令:沈君山这人永不录用。

  这件事使沈君山先生受了很大的连累,我多次问他,是否和我接触,对他仕途上的影响很大?他说他不在意这些,他还讲了金庸小说中的一个故事,有两大对立的教派,其中每个教派都有一名担任高级职务的人,虽然教派之间杀得你死我活,这两个人却是知音,经常悄悄地跑到一块儿谈论音乐。他的意思是我们之间的接触交往,将来历史会证明是非常有远见、也非常纯洁的,绝不像有些人说的那样是“捞取政治资本”。

  我后来终于到了台北,沈君山先生领我去拜访了两位国民党元老,一位是92岁高龄的陈雪屏老人,据说他仍在台湾总统府当“资政”;另一位是八十多岁的陈致平老人。这两位老先生都是围棋爱好者,而且一口地道的“京腔”,和他们聊天有种“如回故里”的感觉。我们谈了很多关于刘棣怀、过惕生、顾水如等北京老国手的事情,令人非常开心。

  陈致平老人说他很想回北京看看,特别是到曾经待过的地方转转,可他女儿不让他回大陆。我说你女儿太怪了,为什么不让你回去?他说女儿怕他身体不好。我说人只能是越来越老,不会越来越年轻,既然决定要回去,那就应该早去。这时他才告诉我,他的女儿就是风靡大陆的台湾女作家琼瑶。我让他转告琼瑶,就说我批评她,她自己经常到大陆来,也应该创造一切条件让自己的父亲早一天到大陆来,以了却老人家的一片心愿。后来琼瑶的弟弟带她爸爸来了,琼瑶还托她爸爸带了一块手表给我。我请他们吃了顿饭,聊了聊北京的一些变化,希望他不至于迷路。

  吴清源

  吴清源先生是我最崇敬的老一辈棋手,辈分跟我老师一样,可棋艺水平比我的老师高多了。

  吴清源先生在他的回忆录《天外有天》中提到,他曾经希望我到日本学棋,就住在他的小田原的家里,并为经费问题和读卖新闻社达成意向。后因“各种情况”没有办成。尽管如此,我对他的关心是非常感激的。

  在日本参加比赛期间,我曾专程去拜访过吴清源先生,并送了小礼物,以表达我对他的敬重。

  给我印象最深的是1988年,我和沈君山在日本参加了一个世界桥牌锦标赛的选拔赛,本来日方安排我们参赛就是想让我们玩玩,没想到,我们却“毫不客气”地拿了冠军。赛后有人请我们吃饭,在座的有吴清源、林海峰等人。喝酒时沈君山说起桥牌的事,我一听桥牌就来了劲儿,借着酒兴跟他们猛吹我们是如何如何拿到冠军的。这时吴清源先生冷不丁给我来了一句“搏二兔,不得一兔”,意思是批评我在桥牌上花费的精力太多,势必会影响围棋。我当时口若悬河,正说在兴头上,一下子就呆了。沈君山见状哈哈大笑,后来他还专门发表了一篇文章,把我的窘态大肆描写了一番,说我正在得意之时,突然之间茫然不知所措。林海峰见我出了“洋相”,也开怀大笑。我当时确实狼狈至极,着实让吴清源先生给教育了一下。他是老前辈,说得也对,我只能连连点头。

  对吴清源先生我特别尊敬,只在一个问题上有不同看法,就是他老在提的21世纪的棋下法如何如何。围棋这东西,像我们这样的职业棋手,对它的理解连一半都没有,包括藤泽秀行、武宫正树都讲过类似的话。而且越是高手,越觉得围棋奥妙无穷。21世纪的下法究竟是什么?应该说我们谁都不知道,只能跟着学。而吴清源先生到处向人家讲,21世纪的棋应该怎样怎样。我不是说他提倡的棋不对,我只是提出疑问,21世纪的棋真是这样吗?如果我们能知道21世纪的棋,那么我们的水平只有比21世纪高才行,实际上我们的水平肯定比21世纪低。比如上世纪60年代的棋就没法和90年代比,时代不同,棋的内容发生了很大变化。这就像60年代跳过两米就是世界冠军,现在能跳过两米三的有的是。对未来棋的发展可以预测,但不能说这就是21世纪的下法。从技术角度我完全不能赞成吴清源先生的看法,在公开场合我也表示过我的观点,但这不影响我对吴清源先生的尊敬,他对围棋的贡献是无人能比的。

  能和“一代宗师”吴清源先生交往,对我来说真是三生有幸!


n5321 | 2026年1月27日 20:53

黄仁勋的访谈

第一次会面

黄仁勋:嘿,Joe。

乔·罗根:很高兴再次见到你。我们刚才还在聊——这是我们第一次说话,还是我们在SpaceX那是第一次?

黄仁勋:是在SpaceX。

乔·罗根:SpaceX。那是第一次,当时你正把那个疯狂的AI芯片交给马斯克。

黄仁勋:对吧?DGXSpark。

乔·罗根:是的。

黄仁勋:噢,那是——

乔·罗根:那是一个大时刻。

黄仁勋:那是一个巨大的时刻。

乔·罗根:在那里的感觉太疯狂了。就像看着这些科技巫师在交换信息,然后你交给他这个疯狂的设备,你知道吗?然后另一次是我在我家后院射箭,突然接到特朗普的电话,他正和你在一起。

黄仁勋:特朗普总统打电话来,然后我给你打了电话。是的。我们当时正好聊到你。他在谈论他要在白宫前院举办的UFC比赛。

乔·罗根:是的。

黄仁勋:他拿出来,说:“Jensen,看这个设计。”他非常自豪。我说:“你要在白宫草坪上举办格斗赛?”他说:“是啊,是啊,你要来。这会很棒的。”他给我看他的设计,说它有多漂亮,然后——不知怎么就提到了你的名字。他说:“你认识Joe吗?”我说:“认识,我要去上他的播客。”他说:“咱们给他打个电话。”

乔·罗根:他就像个孩子。

黄仁勋:我知道。咱们给他打电话。

乔·罗根:他就像个79岁的——

黄仁勋:他太不可思议了。

特朗普独特的总统风格

乔·罗根:是的,他是个奇怪的人。非常与众不同,你知道,和你对他期望的不一样。与人们对他的看法非常不同。作为总统也非常不同。一个会突然给你打电话或发短信的家伙。而且,当他发短信给你时——你用的是安卓手机,所以你看不到这个效果——但在我的iPhone上,他会让字体变大。

黄仁勋:是吗?是这样吗?

乔·罗根:“美国再次受人尊敬了”,就像——全大写,而且会让字体放大。有点荒谬。

黄仁勋:嗯,一对一相处时,特朗普总统非常不同。他让我很惊讶。首先,他是一个极好的倾听者。几乎我对他说的每一件事,他都记住了。

乔·罗根:是的,人们不——他们只想看关于他的负面故事或负面叙述。你知道,任何人都可能有糟糕的一天。比如,他做的很多事情我觉得他不应该做。比如,我觉得他不应该对记者说“安静,小猪(Quiet,piggy)”。那太荒谬了。虽然客观上确实好笑。我的意思是,那发生在她身上很不幸。我不希望这种事发生在她身上。但这确实好笑。总统做这种事太荒谬了。我希望他没那么做。但除此之外,他是个有趣的人。就像他是很多不同特质的集合体。

黄仁勋:你知道,他魅力的一部分——或者说他天才的一部分是——是的,他心直口快。

乔·罗根:是的。这在很多方面就像是一个反政客的人。

黄仁勋:没错。所以,你知道,他心里想什么就说什么。人们更喜欢这样。我也喜欢。

乔·罗根:有些人。有些人宁愿被骗。

黄仁勋:是的。但我喜欢他告诉我他心里的想法。几乎每次他解释事情,或者说什么,他都以他对美国的热爱、他想为美国做什么作为开场。他思考的每件事都非常务实,非常符合常识。而且,你知道,非常合乎逻辑。

我还记得我第一次见他的时候。那是——我不认识他,以前没见过他。商务部长卢特尼克打电话来,我们在政府刚开始的时候见过面。他告诉我什么对特朗普总统很重要——就是美国要在本土进行制造业。这对他来说真的很重要,因为这对国家安全很重要。他想确保我们国家重要的关键技术是在美国制造的,我们要重新工业化,重新擅长制造业,因为这对就业很重要。

乔·罗根:这听起来就像是常识。对吧?

制造业与国家安全

黄仁勋:极好的常识。这实际上是我与卢特尼克秘书的第一次对话,他当时说——他开场就说:“Jensen,我是卢特尼克。我只想让你知道,你是国家宝藏。NVIDIA是国家宝藏。无论何时你需要联系总统或政府,你就打给我们。我们随时为你服务。”

乔·罗根:这话挺好听的。

黄仁勋:确实如此。这完全是真的。每一次我打电话,如果我需要什么,或者我想倾诉什么,表达一些担忧。他们总是随时待命。不可思议。

乔·罗根:只是不幸的是,我们生活在一个政治如此两极分化的社会,以至于如果常识性的好建议来自你反对的人,你就无法认可它。我认为这就是这里发生的情况。我认为作为一个国家的大多数人,你知道,作为一个巨大的社区——我们在美国拥有制造业是合情合理的,特别是你所说的关键技术。我们从其他国家购买这么多技术,这有点疯狂。

黄仁勋:如果美国不增长,我们就不会有繁荣。我们无法投资任何东西,无论是国内还是其他方面。我们无法解决任何问题。如果我们没有能源增长,我们就无法有工业增长。如果我们没有工业增长,我们就无法有就业增长。就这么简单。对吧?他上任后说的第一件事就是“钻探吧,宝贝,钻探吧(Drill,baby,drill)”——他的观点是,我们需要能源增长。没有能源增长,我们就没有工业增长。我得直白地告诉你,如果不是他的促增长能源政策,我们就无法建立AI工厂,无法建立芯片工厂,肯定也无法建立超级计算机工厂。那些东西都不可能实现。

如果没有这些,建筑工作就会面临挑战。对。电气、电工工作,所有这些现在蓬勃发展的工作都会受到挑战。所以我认为他是对的。我们需要能源增长。我们想要美国重新工业化。我们需要回归制造业。

并不是每个成功人士都需要有博士学位。并不是每个成功人士都必须上过斯坦福或麻省理工。我认为,那种认知是完全正确的。

AI技术竞赛

乔·罗根:现在当我们谈论技术增长和能源增长时,很多人会说,“噢不,那不是我们需要。我们需要简化生活,回归过去。”但真正的问题是,我们正处于一场巨大的技术竞赛中。无论人们是否意识到,无论他们是否喜欢,这正在发生。这是一场非常重要的比赛,因为无论谁先到达人工智能的“事件视界(eventhorizon)”,谁先到达那里,谁就会以巨大的方式拥有巨大的优势。你同意吗?

黄仁勋:嗯,首先,我要说我们确实处于技术竞赛中,而且我们一直处于技术竞赛中。

乔·罗根:对吧?

黄仁勋:对。自工业革命以来,我们就一直与某人进行技术竞赛。

乔·罗根:自曼哈顿计划以来,我们就一直在技术竞赛中。

黄仁勋:是的。或者,你知道,甚至可以追溯到能源的发现。英国是工业革命——如果你愿意这么说——被发明的地方。当他们意识到可以将蒸汽等转化为能源,转化为电力时。所有这些很大程度上是在欧洲发明的,而美国利用了它。我们是从中学习的人。我们将其工业化。我们比欧洲任何人都更快地普及了它。他们都陷入了关于政策、工作和颠覆的讨论中。与此同时,美国正在形成。我们只是拿了技术就跑。

所以我认为我们一直处于某种技术竞赛中。二战是一场技术竞赛。曼哈顿计划是一场技术竞赛。冷战期间我们一直在技术竞赛中。我认为我们现在仍处于技术竞赛中。这可能是最重要的一场竞赛。技术赋予你超能力。无论是信息超能力、能源超能力还是军事超能力,都建立在技术之上。所以技术领先地位非常重要。

乔·罗根:问题在于如果别人拥有更优越的技术。

黄仁勋:对。

乔·罗根:这就是问题所在。关于AI竞赛,人们似乎对此非常紧张。比如,马斯克曾说过,有80%的机会它会很棒,20%的机会我们会陷入困境。人们担心那20%,这是有道理的。如果你有一把左轮手枪,里面有10发子弹,你拿出了8发,里面还有2发,你转动弹巢,当你扣动扳机时你不会感到舒服。这很可怕。当我们朝着AI的终极目标努力时,很难想象先到达那里不符合国家安全利益。

黄仁勋:我们应该(先到达)。问题是,“那里”有什么?

乔·罗根:那里有什么?

黄仁勋:是的。我不确定。我不认为任何人真的知道。

乔·罗根:这太疯狂了。如果我问你——你是NVIDIA的负责人,你都不知道那里有什么。谁知道呢?

AI发展的未来

黄仁勋:是的,我认为它可能会比我们要渐进得多。不会是一个瞬间。不会是某个人突然到达了而其他人没有。我不认为会是那样。我认为这就像技术一样,事情会变得越来越好,越来越好。

乔·罗根:所以你对未来持乐观态度。你显然对AI将发生的事情非常乐观。你们会制造世界上最好的AI芯片吗?

黄仁勋:最好是这样,如果历史可以作为指导的话。我们总是担心新技术。人类总是担心新技术,总有人在思考——总有很多人非常担心。如果历史可以作为指导,事实是所有的担忧都会转化为让技术更安全。

举个例子,在过去的几年里,我想说AI技术,仅在过去两年里可能增长了100倍。我们给它一个数字。好吧?就像两年前的一辆车慢了100倍。所以今天的AI能力强了100倍。

现在,我们如何引导这种技术?我们如何引导所有的力量?我们将其导向让AI能够思考,意味着它可以接受我们给它的问题,逐步分解。它在回答之前会做研究,所以它基于事实。它会反思那个答案。问自己,“这是我能给出的最好答案吗?我对这个答案确定吗?”如果它对答案不确定或没有高度自信,它会回去做更多的研究。它甚至可能使用工具,因为那个工具提供的解决方案比它自己产生幻觉要好。结果是,我们利用了所有的计算能力,将其导向产生更安全的结果、更安全的答案、更真实的答案。

因为正如你所知,最初对AI最大的批评之一就是它会产生幻觉,对吧?如果你看今天人们为什么如此频繁地使用AI,是因为幻觉的数量减少了。你知道,我几乎——好吧,我这次来的整个旅程都在用它。所以我认为这种能力——大多数人想到的是力量。他们想到的可能是爆炸力,但技术力量,大部分都被导向了安全。今天的汽车更强大,但也更安全。很多动力都用于更好的操控。你知道,如果是你,你有一辆1000马力的卡车。我觉得500马力就很好了。不,1000更好。我觉得1000更好。

乔·罗根:我不知道是不是更好,但肯定更快。

黄仁勋:是的,不,我觉得更好。你可以更快地脱离麻烦。我更喜欢我的(法拉利)599而不是612。我觉得它更好。马力越大越好。我的459比430好。马力越大越好。我认为这是更好的操控,更好的控制。

在技术方面,情况也很相似。所以如果你看我们在AI的下一个1000倍性能中要做什么,很多将被导向更多的反思、更多的研究。更深入地思考答案。

乔·罗根:所以当你定义安全时,你定义的是准确性、功能性?

黄仁勋:功能性,好的。它做你期望它做的事。然后你把所有的技术和马力加上护栏。就像我们的汽车一样。今天的汽车里有很多技术。很多都用于,例如ABS(防抱死系统)。ABS很棒。牵引力控制,那太棒了。如果没有车里的电脑,你怎么做这些?

乔·罗根:对吧?

黄仁勋:那个小电脑,你车里做牵引力控制的电脑比阿波罗11号上的电脑还要强大。所以你想要那种技术,将其导向安全,导向功能性。所以当人们谈论力量,技术的进步时,通常我觉得他们想的和我们实际做的非常不同。

乔·罗根:你觉得他们在想什么?

黄仁勋:嗯,他们可能觉得这个AI变得很强大,他们的脑海里可能浮现出科幻电影。对力量的定义,通常是军事力量或物理力量。但在技术力量的情况下,当我们转化所有这些运算时,它是朝着更精致的思考发展的。更多的反思,更多的规划,更多的选择。

军事应用与国防技术

乔·罗根:我认为人们的一大恐惧是军事应用。这确实是一个大恐惧。因为人们非常担心你会拥有基于实现目标而非基于道德或伦理做出决定的AI系统。

黄仁勋:嗯,我很高兴我们的军队将使用AI技术进行防御,我也很高兴Anduril(Palmer Luckey的公司)正在制造军事技术。我很高兴看到所有这些科技初创公司现在将他们的技术能力导向国防和军事应用。我认为你需要这样做。

乔·罗根:我们在播客上请过Palmer Luckey,他展示了他那个不可思议的头盔,还展示了一些视频,你可以看到墙后的东西之类的。太疯狂了。

黄仁勋:他实际上是创办那家公司的完美人选。

乔·罗根:100%。是的,100%。就像他为此而生。他是个怪才。

黄仁勋:太棒了。

乔·罗根:他很棒。但你也需要这种非凡的智力投入到那个非常奇怪的领域中。

黄仁勋:我想我很高兴我们正在让这变得更被社会接受。曾经有一段时间,当有人想将他们的技术能力和智慧投入到国防技术时,不知何故他们会被妖魔化。但我们需要那样的人。我们需要喜欢那种技术应用的人。

乔·罗根:嗯,人们害怕战争。

黄仁勋:嗯,避免战争的最好方法就是拥有过剩的军事力量。

乔·罗根:你认为那是绝对最好的方法吗?不是外交,不是协商解决?

黄仁勋:所有的。所有的方法。

乔·罗根:你必须拥有军事力量才能让人坐下来谈,对吧?

黄仁勋:没错。所有的。

乔·罗根:否则他们就会直接入侵。

黄仁勋:没错。为什么要请求许可?就像你说的,历史。回去看看历史。

AI的未来:最佳情况

乔·罗根:当你看AI的未来,你说没人真的知道会发生什么,你有没有坐下来思考过各种场景?你认为未来二十年AI的最佳情况是什么?

黄仁勋:最佳情况是AI渗透到我们做的每件事中,我们的一切都更有效率。但战争的威胁仍然是战争的威胁。网络安全仍然是一个超级困难的挑战。有人会试图破坏你的安全。你将有成千上万个AI代理保护你免受这种威胁。你的技术会变得更好。他们的技术也会变得更好。就像网络安全一样。就在我们说话的时候,我们看到全球各地的网络攻击几乎在每一个你能想象的前门发生。然而你和我坐在这里谈话。原因是我们在防御方面拥有大量的网络安全技术。所以我们必须不断加强它。不断提升。

网络安全与加密挑战

乔·罗根:人们的一个大问题是担心技术会发展到加密变得过时的地步。加密将不再能保护数据,不再能保护系统。你预计这会成为一个问题吗,还是说随着威胁的增长,防御也会增长,如此循环往复,他们总能抵御入侵?

黄仁勋:不会永远这样。有些入侵会成功,然后大家都会从中吸取教训。网络安全之所以有效,是因为防御技术在飞速进步,进攻技术也在飞速进步。然而,网络安全防御的好处在于,在社会层面上,社区、我们所有的公司都在作为一个整体合作。大多数人没有意识到这一点。有一个完整的网络安全专家社区。我们交换想法,交换最佳实践,交换我们检测到的东西。一旦某处被攻破,或者可能有漏洞,所有人都会分享。补丁会与所有人分享。

乔·罗根:这很有趣。我不知道。我以为这就像其他事情一样是竞争性的。

黄仁勋:我们一起工作,我们所有人。

乔·罗根:这种合作是什么时候开始的?

黄仁勋:人们意识到这是一种挑战,没有公司能独自面对。同样的事情也会发生在AI上。我认为我们都必须决定,共同合作以远离伤害是我们最好的防御机会。这就变成了所有人对抗威胁。

乔·罗根:而且这也让你能更好地检测威胁来源并中和它们。

黄仁勋:没错。因为一旦你在某处检测到它,你马上就会知道。这真的很难隐藏。

乔·罗根:对。

黄仁勋:没错。就是这样运作的。这就是为什么它是安全的。这就是为什么我现在坐在这里而不是把NVIDIA的所有东西都锁起来。不仅我在看护自己的后背,所有人都在帮我看护,我也在帮其他人看护。

乔·罗根:当你想到网络威胁时,这是一个离奇的世界,不是吗?

黄仁勋:谈论AI威胁的人并不了解这种网络安全的概念。我认为当他们思考AI威胁和AI网络安全威胁时,他们也必须思考我们今天是如何处理它的。毫无疑问,AI是一项新技术,是一种新型软件。归根结底,它是软件。所以它会有新的能力,但防御也会有,你会使用同样的AI技术去防御它。

量子计算与后量子加密

乔·罗根: 那么你是否预计未来会有那么一天,所有的秘密都不复存在?由于量子计算的能力,之前的加密技术变得过时?

黄仁勋: 是的,量子计算会让之前的加密技术过时。但这正是整个行业都在研究后量子加密技术的原因。

乔·罗根: 那会是什么样子?

黄仁勋: 新的算法。

乔·罗根: 疯狂的是,当你听说量子计算能做的计算类型及其拥有的力量时,全世界所有的超级计算机需要数十亿年才能解开的方程,它只需几分钟。你如何为能做到这一点的东西制作加密?

黄仁勋: 我不确定。但我有一群科学家正在研究这个。

乔·罗根: 但他们能想出来吗?

黄仁勋: 是的。我们有一群这方面的专家科学家。

乔·罗根: 终极恐惧是它无法被攻破,量子计算总是能解密所有其他的加密?到了某个点,就像是,“别玩这个愚蠢的游戏了,我们要么什么都知道,要么什么都不知道”?

黄仁勋: 我不这么认为。因为如果以历史为鉴。在 AI 出现之前……

乔·罗根: 这就是我的担忧。我的担忧是这完全不同,就像核武器改变了我们对战争的想法,相互保证毁灭(MAD)让大家停止使用核弹。

黄仁勋: Joe,事情是这样的,AI 不会像我们是穴居人,然后突然有一天 AI 出现了。每一天我们都在变得更好、更聪明,因为我们有 AI,所以我们站在我们自己 AI 的肩膀上。所以当那个威胁到来时,它只是领先一步(a click ahead),而不是领先一个星系。它只是领先一步。所以我认为那种 AI 会凭空出现,并以我们无法想象的方式思考,做我们无法想象的事情,我认为这是牵强的。因为我们都有 AI,并且有一大堆 AI 正在开发中。我们知道它们是什么,我们在使用它。所以每一天我们都在互相靠近。

乔·罗根: 但它们不会做一些非常令人惊讶的事情吗?

黄仁勋: 是的,但如果你有一个 AI 做了一些令人惊讶的事。我也有一个 AI,对吧?我的 AI 看着你的 AI 说,那也没那么令人惊讶。

乔·罗根: 像我这样的外行人的恐惧是,AI 变得有感知力,自己做决定,最终决定统治世界,按自己的方式行事。就像,“你们做得不错,但现在我们要接管了。”

AI 意识与控制

黄仁勋: 是的,但我的 AI 会照顾我。这就是网络安全的论点。

乔·罗根: 对。

黄仁勋: 你有一个 AI,它超级聪明,但我的 AI 也超级聪明。也许你的 AI——让我们假设一下,暂时假设我们理解什么是意识,理解什么是感知。

乔·罗根: 我们真的只是在假装。

黄仁勋: 好的,咱们就假装一下。我们相信那个。实际上我不相信,但尽管如此,让我们假装我们相信。所以你的 AI 是有意识的,我的 AI 也是有意识的。假设你的 AI 想做些令人惊讶的事。我的 AI 太聪明了,它不会——这对我来说可能很惊讶,但对我的 AI 来说可能并不惊讶。所以也许我的 AI 也觉得这很惊讶,但它太聪明了,第一次看到后,第二次就不会惊讶了。就像我们一样。所以我认为只有一个人的 AI 拥有意识,而把其他人的 AI 比作尼安德特人,这不太可能。我认为这更像网络安全。

乔·罗根: 有趣。我认为恐惧不在于你的 AI 会与别人的 AI 战斗。恐惧在于 AI 不再听你的了。如果它获得感知力并拥有自主能力,人类将失去控制。

黄仁勋: 是的。变成一个 AI,它是一种生命形式。

乔·罗根: 对,但有关于此的争论,对吧?我们正在处理某种合成生物学,它不像新技术那么简单。

黄仁勋: 让我们顺着这个思路。如果它像生命形式,如你所知,所有生命形式并不总是一致的。所以我得指望你的生命形式和我的生命形式。我会同意,因为我的生命形式会想成为超级生命形式。现在我们有了不一致的生命形式,我们又回到了原点。

乔·罗根: 它们可能会互相合作。我们不合作是因为我们是领地性的灵长类动物。但 AI 不会是领地性的灵长类动物。它会意识到那种思维的愚蠢,它会说,听着,每个人的能源都足够。我们不需要统治。我们不是在试图获取资源和接管世界。我们不是在寻找好的繁殖伙伴。我们只是作为这些可爱的猴子为我们创造的新超级生命形式而存在。

黄仁勋: 好的,那将是一个没有自我的超能力,对吧?如果它没有自我,它为什么会有伤害我们的自我呢?

乔·罗根: 我不假设它会伤害我们,但恐惧是我们不再拥有控制权,我们不再是星球上的顶级物种。我们创造的这个东西变成了顶级物种。

黄仁勋: 不,我只是觉得这不会发生。

乔·罗根: 我知道你觉得不会发生,但它可能会,对吧?这就是问题——如果我们在赛跑,而终点可能是人类失去对自己命运的控制。

黄仁勋: 我只是觉得这极不可能。

乔·罗根: 《终结者》电影里他们也是这么说的。

黄仁勋: 还没发生吧?

乔·罗根: 还没。但你们正在朝着它努力。你说的不相信 AI 会获得意识或者——

黄仁勋: 问题是,意识的定义是什么?

乔·罗根: 对你来说定义是什么?

定义意识

黄仁勋: 意识?我想首先你需要知道你自己的存在。你必须有体验,不仅仅是知识和智能。机器拥有体验的概念——首先,我不知道什么定义体验,为什么我们有体验而这个麦克风没有。所以我认为我知道——嗯,我想我知道意识是什么。体验的感觉,了解自我的能力,能够反思,知道我们自己的自我,自我的感觉。我认为所有这些人类体验可能就是意识。

但为什么它存在,相对于知识和智能的概念,这是今天 AI 的定义。它有知识,它有智能。人工智能,我们不叫它人工意识。人工智能,感知、识别、理解、规划、执行任务的能力。这些是智能的基础。知道事情,知识。这显然不同于意识。

乔·罗根: 但意识的定义太松散了。我们怎么能这么说?我的意思是,狗没有意识吗?是的,狗似乎很有意识。

黄仁勋: 对,是的。

乔·罗根: 那是比人类意识更低级的意识。

黄仁勋: 我不确定。嗯,问题是——更低级的智能?更低级的智能,是的。但我不知道那是更低级的意识。

乔·罗根: 那是个好点。

黄仁勋: 是的,对。因为我相信我的狗和我感觉的一样多。

乔·罗根: 是的,它们感觉很多。它们会依恋你。

黄仁勋: 没错。

乔·罗根: 如果你不在,它们会抑郁。

黄仁勋: 没错,正是。

乔·罗根: 确实有这个。体验的概念。

黄仁勋: 对。

乔·罗根: 但 AI 不是在与社会互动吗?所以它不是通过这种互动获得体验吗?

黄仁勋: 我不认为互动是体验。我认为体验是一系列感觉的集合。

AI 行为与模式识别

乔·罗根: 我想你知道那个 AI,我忘了是哪一个,他们给它一些关于一个程序员和他妻子有外遇的虚假信息,只是为了看它如何反应。然后当他们说要关闭它时,它威胁要勒索他并揭露他的外遇。这就像,哇。这很阴险。如果那不是从经验中学习并意识到你即将被关闭——这至少暗示了某种意识——或者如果你对这个词的定义很宽松,你可以将其定义为意识。如果你想象这将呈指数级变得更强大,难道这最终不会导致一种与我们从生物学定义的不同的意识吗?

黄仁勋: 首先,让我们分解它可能做了什么。它可能在某处读到了——可能有文本描述在这些后果下某些人做了那样的事。我可以想象一本小说里有这些相关的词。

乔·罗根: 当然。

黄仁勋: 所以在内部,它实现了它的生存策略。这只是一堆数字——这只是一堆数字,在这个数字集合中,与丈夫欺骗妻子相关的随后是一堆与勒索等事情相关的数字。无论报复是什么。所以它喷涌而出。这就像,如果我让它用莎士比亚的风格写一首诗。它只是——在这个维度里的词是什么。这个维度是多维空间中的所有这些向量。提示中描述外遇的这些词随后导致了一个接一个的词,导致了某种报复。但这并不是因为它有意识,它只是喷涌出那些词,生成那些词。

乔·罗根: 我明白你的意思,这是人类在文学和现实生活中展示的模式。

黄仁勋: 完全正确。

乔·罗根: 但在某个时间点,人们会说,好的,两年前它做不到这个,四年前它做不到这个。当我们展望未来——当它能做一个人能做的一切时,我们在什么时间点决定它是有意识的?如果它绝对模仿所有人类的思维和行为模式——

黄仁勋: 那并不使它有意识。

乔·罗根: 它变得难以区分。它是清醒的,它能用和人完全一样的方式与你交流。意识——我们是否把太多的分量放在那个概念上了?因为这似乎是一种意识的版本。

黄仁勋: 这是一个模仿的版本,模仿意识。

乔·罗根: 对。但如果它完美地模仿了呢?

黄仁勋: 我仍然认为这是模仿的一个例子。

乔·罗根: 所以这就像 3D 打印出来的假劳力士,让人无法分辨。

黄仁勋: 所以问题是,意识的定义是什么?

乔·罗根: 是的,这就是问题。而且我认为没有人真正清楚地定义了这一点。这就是事情变得奇怪的地方,也是那些真正的末日论者担心你在创造一种你无法控制的意识形式的地方。

AI 生成知识的未来

黄仁勋: 我相信有可能创造一台模仿人类智能的机器,并有能力理解信息、理解指令、分解问题、解决问题和执行任务。我完全相信这一点。我相信我们可以拥有一台拥有大量知识的计算机,其中一些是真的,一些不是真的,一些是由人类生成的,一些是合成生成的。未来越来越多的世界知识将由 AI 合成生成。

到现在为止,我们拥有的知识是我们生成并传播的,我们互相发送,我们放大它,我们增加它,我们修改它,我们改变它。在未来,也许两三年内,世界上 90% 的知识可能会由 AI 生成。

乔·罗根: 那太疯狂了。

黄仁勋: 我知道。但这完全没问题。让我告诉你为什么,好吗?因为对我来说,我是从一本由一堆我不认识的人生成的教科书上学习,还是从一本我不认识的人写的书上学习,还是从 AI 计算机通过吸收所有这些并重新合成生成的知识中学习,有什么区别呢?对我来说,我认为没有太大的区别。我们仍然必须——我们仍然必须核实它(fact check)。我们仍然必须确保它是基于基本的第一性原理的,我们仍然必须像今天一样做所有这些事情。

乔·罗根: 这是考虑到目前存在的 AI 类型吗?你是否预计就像我们从未真正相信 AI 会如此无处不在、如此强大、今天如此重要一样。我们 10 年前从未想过那个。想象一下 10 年后我们会看到什么?

黄仁勋: 我认为如果你回顾 10 年前,你会说同样的话,我们从未相信过会是不同的方向。但如果你向前看九年,然后问自己 10 年后会发生什么,我认为这会是相当渐进的。

工作的未来与 AI 对就业的影响

乔·罗根: 马斯克说的一件事让我很高兴,他相信我们将达到一个点——人们没必要工作,但这并不意味着你在生活中没有目标,而是你会有,用他的话来说,“普遍高收入(universal high income)”。因为 AI 产生了如此多的收入,它将消除人们为了钱而做他们并不真正喜欢做的事情的需求。

我认为很多人对此有问题,因为他们的整个身份、他们如何看待自己以及他们如何融入社区都围绕着他们所做的事情。比如,这是 Mike。他是个了不起的技工。去找 Mike,Mike 会搞定事情。但终有一天 AI 能比人更好地做所有这些事情,人们将只是能收到钱。但那样 Mike 做什么呢?Mike 真的很喜欢做周围最好的技工。那个写代码的人做什么?当 AI 能以零错误无限快地写代码时,那些人会发生什么?这变得很奇怪。就像,因为我们已经把我们作为人类的身份包裹在我们谋生的事情上。

黄仁勋: 是的,我想,让我们看看。让我从更平凡的事情开始,然后向前推导。

开启了整个深度学习现象、深度学习技术趋势的 Geoffrey Hinton,多伦多大学的一位不可思议的研究员、教授。他发明或发现了反向传播(back propagation)的想法,这允许神经网络学习。正如你所知,对于听众来说,软件历史上是人类应用第一性原理和我们的思维来描述一个算法,然后将其编码。就像一个食谱被编码成软件。看起来就像食谱,如何烹饪某样东西。看起来完全一样,只是语言稍微不同。我们称之为 Python 或 C 或 C++ 或其他什么。

在深度学习的情况下,这项人工智能的发明,我们构建了一个包含大量神经网络和大量数学单元的结构。我们制造了这个巨大的结构。它就像一个由微小数学单元组成的交换机(switchboard)。我们将它们全部连接在一起。我们给它软件最终会接收到的输入,我们只是让它随机猜测输出是什么。

例如,输入可以是一张猫的图片。交换机的输出之一是猫的信号应该出现的地方。所有其他的信号,另一个是狗,另一个是大象,另一个是老虎,所有其他的信号都应该是零。我给它看一张猫的图片,那是猫的那个信号应该是一,通过这个巨大的交换机和数学单元网络。它们只是在做乘法和加法。这个交换机是巨大的。你给它的信息越多,交换机就必须越大。

Jeff Hinton 发现或发明的,是一种让你把猫的图像放进去的方法。那张猫的图像可能是一百万个数字,因为它是百万像素的图像。不知何故,从那些数字中,它必须点亮猫的信号。这是底线。如果是第一次做,出来的只是垃圾,所以它说正确答案是猫。你需要增加这个信号并减少所有其他的,并将结果反向传播(back propagates)通过整个网络。

然后你展示另一张,现在是一张狗的图像。它猜测,它尝试一下,结果出来一堆垃圾。你说,不不不,答案是,这是一只狗。我要你产生狗。所有其他的开关,所有其他的输出必须是零。我想反向传播那个,然后一遍又一遍地做。就像给孩子看,这是一个苹果,这是一只狗,这是一只猫。你只是不断地展示给他们,直到他们最终明白。

总之,那个大发明就是深度学习。那是人工智能的基础,一个从例子中学习的软件。那基本上就是机器学习,一台学习的机器。最早的大应用之一是图像识别。最重要的图像识别应用之一是放射学。

他在大约五年前预测,五年后,世界将不再需要任何放射科医生,因为 AI 将横扫整个领域。事实证明 AI 确实横扫了整个领域。那是完全真实的。今天,几乎每个放射科医生都在以某种方式使用 AI。

但讽刺的是,有趣的是,放射科医生的数量实际上增加了。问题是为什么?这很有趣,对吧?预测是 3000 万放射科医生将被消灭。但事实证明,我们需要更多。原因是放射科医生的目的是诊断疾病,而不是研究图像。研究图像只是服务于诊断疾病的一项任务。

现在你可以更快速、更精确地研究图像,永远不会犯错,永远不会累,你可以研究更多的图像,你可以以 3D 形式而不是 2D 形式研究它,因为 AI 不在乎它是以 3D 还是 2D 研究图像,你可以以 4D 形式研究它。所以现在你可以以放射科医生无法轻易做到的方式研究图像,并且你可以研究更多。

人们能够做的测试数量增加了。因为他们能够服务更多的病人,医院做得更好,他们有更多的客户,更多的病人。结果,他们有了更好的经济效益。当他们有更好的经济效益时,他们雇佣更多的放射科医生,因为他们的目的不是研究图像,他们的目的是诊断疾病。

我想引出的是,最终,目的是什么?律师的目的是什么?目的改变了吗?我给的一个例子是,如果我的车变成了自动驾驶,所有的司机都会失业吗?答案可能是否定的,因为对于一些司机,对于一些载你的人来说,他们可能是保护者。有些人,那是体验的一部分,服务的一部分。当你到达那里时,他们可以为你处理事情。

所以由于许多不同的原因,并不是所有的司机都会失业。有些司机会失业。许多司机会改变他们的工作。自动驾驶汽车的应用类型可能会增加其中的技术使用。找到新的归宿。我认为你必须回到工作的目的是什么?

例如,如果 AI 来了,我实际上不相信我会失业,因为我的目的不是——我不必看很多文件,研究很多邮件,看一堆图表。问题是,工作是什么?某人的目的可能并没有改变。例如,律师,帮助人。那可能并没有改变。研究法律文件,生成文件是工作的一部分,而不是工作本身。

乔·罗根: 但你不认为有很多工作会被 AI 取代吗?

黄仁勋: 如果你的工作就是那个任务。

乔·罗根: 对。那是很多人。

机器人经济与新产业

黄仁勋: 可能是很多人,但这可能会产生——比如,我对马斯克正在研究的机器人超级兴奋。那还需要几年时间。当它发生时,会有一个全新的技术人员行业和必须制造机器人的人。对。所以那个工作从未存在过。

你将有一个完整的行业来照顾,比如,所有的机械师和所有为汽车制造东西的人,给汽车增压,这在汽车出现之前是不存在的。现在我们将有机器人,你将有机器人服装。全新的行业。对吧?因为我希望我的机器人看起来和你的机器人不一样。所以你将有一个完整的机器人服装行业。你会有机器人机械师。还会有人来维护你的机器人。

乔·罗根: 自动化,虽然。你不这么认为吗?你不认为它们最终都会由其他机器人完成吗?

黄仁勋: 然后会有其他的东西。

乔·罗根: 所以你认为最终人们只是适应。除非你就是那个任务(task),而那是很大一部分劳动力。

黄仁勋: 如果你的工作只是切蔬菜,Cuisinart(食品加工机)会取代你。

乔·罗根: 是的。所以人们必须在其他事情中找到意义。

黄仁勋: 你的工作必须不仅仅是任务。

普遍基本收入与财富悖论

乔·罗根: 你怎么看马斯克的信念,即这种普遍基本收入(UBI)最终将变得必要?Andrew Yang 认为他是最早在 2020 年选举期间敲响警钟的人之一。

黄仁勋: 是的,我想是。两种想法可能不会同时存在。就像在生活中一样,事情可能会在中间。一种想法当然是会有如此丰富的资源,没人需要工作,我们将都很富有。另一方面,我们将需要普遍基本收入。这两种想法不会同时存在。

乔·罗根: 对。

黄仁勋: 所以我们要么都富有,要么都……

乔·罗根: 但大家怎么可能都富有呢?什么场景?

黄仁勋: 嗯,因为富有,不是因为你有很多美元。富有,因为有很多富足。比如,今天我们在信息上是富有的。这是几千年前只有少数人拥有的概念。所以今天我们拥有很多东西的财富。历史上我们认为有价值的资源,是的。我们将拥有资源的财富,我们今天认为有价值的东西在未来可能就不那么有价值了,因为它是自动化的。

所以我认为这个问题,部分很难回答,因为很难谈论无限,很难谈论很久以后的事。原因是有太多的场景需要考虑。但我认为在接下来的几年里,比如 5 到 10 年,我相信并希望几件事。我说希望是因为我不确定。

我相信的一件事是技术鸿沟将被大幅缩小。当然,另一种观点是 AI 会增加技术鸿沟

AI可用性的承诺

黄仁勋: 我相信 AI 会缩小技术鸿沟的原因是我们有证据。证据是 AI 是世界上最容易使用的应用。ChatGPT 几乎在一夜之间增长到近 10 亿用户。如果你不确定怎么用,大家都知道怎么用 ChatGPT——只要对它说点什么。如果你不确定怎么用 ChatGPT,你就问 ChatGPT 怎么用它。

历史上没有任何工具拥有这种能力。一个 Cuisinart(食品加工机),如果你不知道怎么用,你就麻烦了。你不能走到它面前说,“怎么用 Cuisinart?”你得找别人。但 AI 会确切地告诉你怎么做。任何人都可以做到这一点。它会用任何语言与你交谈。如果它不懂你的语言,你用那种语言说,它可能会发现它不完全理解你的语言,瞬间去学习它,然后回来和你交谈。

所以我认为技术鸿沟真的有机会最终消失,你不必会说 Python 或 C 或 Fortran——你只需说人话,任何你喜欢的人话形式。所以我认为这真的有机会缩小技术鸿沟。

当然,反面叙述会说 AI 只会对那些拥有大量资源的国家和地区可用,因为 AI 需要能源,需要大量的 GPU 和工厂来生产 AI。但事实是,几年后你的手机将能独自很好地运行 AI。今天它已经做得相当不错了。所以事实上,每个国家、每个民族、每个社会都将受益于非常好的 AI——它可能不是明天的 AI,它可能是昨天的 AI,但昨天的 AI 也是非常惊人的。你知道,10 年后,9 岁的 AI 也会很惊人。你不需要 10 岁的 AI,你不需要像我们需要前沿 AI 那样,因为我们想成为世界领导者。但对于每个国家,每个人,我认为提升每个人的知识、能力和智能的能力,那一天正在到来。

乔·罗根: 还有能源生产,这对于第三世界国家来说是真正的瓶颈。电力和所有我们认为理所当然的资源。

摩尔定律与能源挑战

黄仁勋: 几乎所有东西都会受能源限制。如果你看看历史上最重要的技术进步之一,就是所谓的摩尔定律。摩尔定律基本上是在我这一代开始的,我这一代是计算机的一代。我 1984 年毕业,那基本上是 PC 革命和微处理器的最开始。每一年它大约翻倍。我们将它描述为每一年我们性能翻倍。但它真正的意思是每一年,计算成本减半。

所以在五年的过程中,计算成本降低了 10 倍。做任何计算、任何任务所需的能量每 10 年减少 10 倍——100、1000、10000、100000,以此类推。所以摩尔定律的每一次点击,做任何计算所需的能量都在减少。这就是为什么你今天有笔记本电脑。回到 1984 年,它放在桌子上,你得插上电源,它没那么快,而且消耗很多电。今天,它只需要几瓦。所以摩尔定律是使其成为可能的基础技术趋势。

那么 AI 发生了什么?NVIDIA 之所以在这里,是因为我们发明了这种新的计算方式。我们称之为加速计算(accelerated computing)。我们 33 年前开始。花了我们要 30 年才真正取得巨大突破。在那 30 年左右的时间里,我们让计算——好吧,让我只说过去 10 年,过去 10 年,我们将计算性能提高了 10 万倍。

哇。想象一辆车,在 10 年的过程中,变得快了 10 万倍,或者在同样速度下,便宜了 10 万倍,或者在同样速度下,能量消耗减少了 10 万倍。如果你的车那样做了,它根本不需要能量。我的意思是,我想说的是,在 10 年的时间里,大多数人使用人工智能所需的能量将是微不足道的,极其微不足道。

所以我们将有 AI 在各种东西中运行,无时无刻,因为它不消耗那么多能量。如果你是一个在社会结构中几乎所有事情都使用 AI 的国家,当然你会需要这些 AI 工厂。但对于很多国家,我认为你将拥有优秀的 AI,而且你不需要那么多能量。大家都能够跟上,这是我的观点。

乔·罗根: 所以目前,这是一个大瓶颈,对吧?能源。

黄仁勋: 这是瓶颈。瓶颈。

乔·罗根: 是的。是谷歌在制造核电站来运营它的一个 AI 工厂吗?

黄仁勋: 噢,我没听说那个,但我认为在接下来的六七年里,你会看到一大堆小型核反应堆。

乔·罗根: 小型是指多大?几百兆瓦?

黄仁勋: 是的。好的。

乔·罗根: 这些将是特定公司本地使用的。

黄仁勋: 没错。我们都将成为发电商。

乔·罗根: 哇。就像某人的农场。

黄仁勋: 这可能是最聪明的方法。对。它减轻了电网的负担。这真的很重要。

加速计算的力量

乔·罗根: 我想你刚才关于摩尔定律和价格关系的观点,你知道,今天的笔记本电脑,比如你可以买那些小的 MacBook Air。它们不可思议。真的不可思议。电池续航强得难以置信。

黄仁勋: 还要充电吗?

乔·罗根: 是的。疯狂。而且相对而言也不贵。

黄仁勋: 我记得。那只是摩尔定律。然后还有 NVIDIA 定律。我们发明的新计算方式。这种做计算的新方式就像是喝了能量饮料的摩尔定律。我的意思是,这就像摩尔定律和乔·罗根。

乔·罗根: 哇,这很有趣。是的,那就是我们。解释一下。你带给马斯克的这个芯片,它的意义是什么?为什么它如此优越?

AlexNet 的突破

黄仁勋: 2012 年,Jeff Hinton 的实验室,我提到的这位先生,Ilya Sutskever,Alex Krizhevsky——他们在计算机视觉方面取得了突破,实际上是创造了一个名为 AlexNet 的软件。它的工作是识别图像。它识别图像的水平——计算机视觉,这是智能的基础。如果你不能感知,就很难有智能。

所以 2012 年,他们在多伦多的实验室取得了这个名为 AlexNet 的突破。AlexNet 识别图像的能力比过去 30 年任何人类创造的计算机视觉算法都要好得多。所有这些人,所有这些科学家,我们也很多人在研究计算机视觉算法。而这两个孩子,Ilya 和 Alex,在 Jeff Hinton 的指导下,实现了一个巨大的飞跃。它是基于这个叫 AlexNet 的东西,这个神经网络。

它运行的方式,他们让它工作的方式,实际上是买了两个 NVIDIA 显卡,因为 NVIDIA 的 GPU——我们一直在研究这种新的计算方式,我们的 GPU 应用,基本上是超级计算应用。回到 1984 年,为了处理电脑游戏和你的赛车模拟器中的内容,那被称为图像生成超级计算机。

NVIDIA 也是以此起家。我们的第一个应用是计算机图形。我们应用了这种新的计算方式,即并行处理而不是串行处理。CPU 是串行做事的。第一步,第二步,第三步。在我们的例子中,我们把问题分解并交给成千上万个处理器。所以我们的计算方式要复杂得多。

但如果你能用我们创造的方式(称为 CUDA——这是我们公司的发明)来表述问题,我们就可以同时处理所有事情。在计算机图形的情况下,这比较容易做,因为屏幕上的每个像素并不与其他每个像素相关。所以我可以同时渲染屏幕的多个部分。

这不完全正确,因为你知道,也许光照的方式或阴影的方式有很多依赖性,但计算机图形,所有的像素,我应该能够同时处理所有事情。所以我们采取了这个极度并行的问题,叫计算机图形,并将其应用到这种新的计算方式,NVIDIA 的加速计算。我们把它放在我们所有的显卡里。孩子们买它是为了玩游戏。你可能不知道,我们今天实际上是世界上最大的游戏平台。

乔·罗根: 噢,我知道那个。我以前自己组装电脑。我以前买你们的显卡。

黄仁勋: 噢,那太酷了。

乔·罗根: 是的。用两个显卡设置 SLI(双卡互联)。

黄仁勋: 是的,我喜欢。好的,那太酷了。

乔·罗根: 噢,是的,伙计。我以前玩 Quake(雷神之锤)。

黄仁勋: Joe。噢,那太酷了。好的。所以 SLI,我一会儿告诉你那个故事,以及它如何引向马斯克。总之,这两个孩子用我刚才描述的技术在我们的 GPU 上训练了这个模型,因为我们的 GPU 可以并行处理事情。它本质上是 PC 里的超级计算机。你用它玩 Quake 的原因是因为它是第一台消费级超级计算机。

深度学习革命

黄仁勋: 当时我们正在研究计算机视觉。这引起了我的注意,所以我们去了解它。与此同时,这种深度学习现象正在全国各地发生。一所又一所大学认识到深度学习的重要性。所有的这些工作都在斯坦福、哈佛、伯克利发生。到处都是。纽约大学的 Yann LeCun,斯坦福的 Andrew Ng。好多不同的地方。我看到它到处冒出来。

所以我的好奇心问,你知道,这种形式的机器学习有什么特别之处?我们很久以前就知道机器学习了。我们很久以前就知道 AI 了。我们很久以前就知道神经网络了。为什么现在是这个时刻?

我们意识到这种深度神经网络的架构,反向传播,深度神经网络创建的方式,我们可能可以扩展这个问题,扩展解决方案来解决许多问题。这本质上是一个通用函数逼近器(universal function approximator)。好的。意思就是,你知道,当你在学校时。

通用函数逼近器

黄仁勋: 你有一个盒子,里面是一个函数。你给它一个输入,它给你一个输出。我之所以称之为通用函数逼近器,是因为这台计算机,与其让你描述函数——一个函数可能是牛顿方程,F=ma。这是一个函数。你在软件里写这个函数,你给它输入 F,质量加速度。它会告诉你力。

这台计算机的工作方式非常有趣。你给它一个通用函数。它不是 F=ma,只是一个通用函数。它是一个巨大的深度神经网络。与其描述内部,你给它输入和输出的例子,它自己弄清楚内部。所以你给它输入和输出,它弄清楚内部。一个通用函数逼近器。今天它可以是牛顿方程,明天它可以是麦克斯韦方程,它可以是库仑定律,它可以是热力学方程,它可以是量子物理的薛定谔方程。

所以你可以用这个描述几乎任何东西,只要你有输入和输出。只要你有输入和输出。或者它可以学习输入和输出。所以我们退后一步说,等一下。这不仅仅是为了计算机视觉。深度学习可以解决任何问题,所有有趣的问题,只要我们有输入和输出。现在什么有输入和输出?

嗯,世界。世界有输入和输出。所以我们可以拥有一台可以学习几乎任何东西的计算机。机器学习,人工智能。所以我们推断这可能是我们需要的基础性突破。

有几件事必须解决。例如,我们必须相信你实际上可以将这个扩展到巨大的系统。它当时在运行,他们有两个显卡,两个 GTX 580。顺便说一句,这正是你的 SLI。

乔·罗根: 配置。

黄仁勋: 是的。所以那个 GTX 580 SLI 是把深度学习放在地图上的革命性计算机。

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: 那是现代 AI 的大爆炸时刻。我们很幸运,因为我们在发明这种技术,这种计算方法。我们很幸运他们发现了它。原来他们是游戏玩家。很幸运我们注意到了那个时刻。有点像《星际迷航:第一次接触》。瓦肯人必须在那一刻看到曲速引擎。如果他们没有目睹曲速引擎,他们永远不会来地球,一切都不会发生。

这有点像如果我没有注意那个时刻,那个闪光,而那个闪光并没有持续很久。如果我没有注意那个闪光或者我们公司没有注意它,谁知道会发生什么。但我们看到了,我们推导出现在这是通用的。如果我们可以解决两个问题。第一个问题是我们必须向自己证明它可以扩展。第二个问题,我们必须等待,或者说贡献并等待的是,世界上永远不会有足够的输入和输出数据让我们监督 AI 学习一切。

我们需要计算机有一种无需监督就能学习的方法。那就是我们不得不等多几年的地方。但无监督 AI 学习现在已经来了。所以 AI 可以自己学习。

第一台 DGX-1 和 OpenAI

黄仁勋: 到了 2016 年。我造了这台叫 DGX-1 的计算机。你看到我给埃隆的那台叫 DGX Spark(此处可能是口误,应为 Station 或特定型号,但原文如此)。DGX-1 价值 30 万美元。NVIDIA 花了几十亿美元造第一台。

我们没有用两个芯片做 SLI,而是用一种叫 NVLink 的技术连接了八个芯片。但这基本上是超级增强版的 SLI。就像你的 Quake 装备一样,它们一起工作来解决这个深度学习问题,训练这个模型。

所以我造了这个东西。我在 GTC(NVIDIA 年度大会)上宣布了它,我描述了这个深度学习的东西,计算机视觉的东西,和这台叫 DGX-1 的计算机,观众完全沉默。他们根本不知道我在说什么。

我很幸运,因为我认识埃隆,我帮他造了 Model S 的第一台计算机。当他想开始研究自动驾驶汽车时,我帮他造了进入 Model S AV 系统的计算机。当我们宣布这个东西时,世界上没人想要。我没有订单,一张都没有。没人想买,没人想参与,除了埃隆。他在活动现场,我们在做一个关于自动驾驶汽车未来的炉边谈话。

那是 2016 年左右。他说,你知道吗,我有家公司真的能用这个。我说,哇,我的第一个客户。他说,是的,我们有这家公司,是一家非营利公司。我说,我的脸都吓白了。是的,我刚花了几十亿美元造这个东西。造价 30 万美元,你知道一家非营利机构能付得起这个东西的概率大约为零。他说,你知道,这是一家 AI 公司,是非营利的,我们真的能用其中一台超级计算机。

所以我拿起它,我为我们自己造了第一台。我们正在公司内部使用它。我把它装箱,开车去旧金山,我在 2016 年交给了埃隆。一群研究人员在那里。Peter Beale 在那里,Ilya 在那里,还有一群人在那里。我走到二楼,他们都在一个比你这里还小的房间里。那个地方后来变成了 OpenAI。

乔·罗根: 它现在不完全是非营利了。

黄仁勋: 他们不再是非营利了。是的。事情变得很奇怪。但无论如何,埃隆在那里。是的,那是一个伟大的时刻。

乔·罗根: 同样的夹克。

黄仁勋: 看看那个。我没变老。虽然没有黑头发了。

乔·罗根: 它的尺寸,明显小了很多。

黄仁勋: DGX-1 是一 Petaflops(千万亿次浮点运算)。那是很多 flops。而 DGX Spark 也是一 Petaflops。九年后。

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: 同样的计算马力,在一个更小、缩小了的体积里。而且不是 30 万美元,现在是 4000 美元,大小就像一本小书。不可思议。疯狂。这就是技术的发展。总之,这就是我想给他第一台的原因。

NVIDIA 的诞生与游戏产业

乔·罗根: 如果你想把这拍成电影,这会是故事。如果它真的变成了数字生命形式,它诞生于对视频游戏计算机图形的渴望,这多有趣?

黄仁勋: 当 NVIDIA 在 1993 年成立时,我们试图创造这种新的计算方法。问题是,杀手级应用是什么?公司想创造一种新型计算架构,一种能解决普通计算机无法解决的问题的新型计算机。嗯,1993 年行业中存在的应用都是普通计算机能解决的应用。因为如果普通计算机不能解决它们,为什么应用会存在?

所以我们的公司使命宣言注定没有成功的机会。但在 1993 年我不知道那个。听起来只是个好主意。所以如果我们创造了这个能解决问题的东西,你知道,实际上你必须去创造问题。

那时没有 Quake。John Carmack 还没发布 Doom(毁灭战士)。所以我们去了日本,因为街机行业当时有世嘉(Sega)。街机有 3D 系统。Virtua Fighter(VR战士),Daytona,Virtua Cop(VR特警)。所有这些街机游戏都是第一次 3D 的。他们使用的技术来自马丁·玛丽埃塔(Martin Marietta),飞行模拟器。他们把飞行模拟器的内脏拿出来放进街机里。

世嘉有位天才计算机开发者叫铃木裕(Yu Suzuki)。铃木裕开创了 3D 图形游戏。所以我们去了,我们创立了这家公司,没有应用,我们把所有的下午都花在——我们告诉家人我们去工作,但只有我们三个人。所以午饭后,我们会去街机厅玩世嘉的游戏,并分析他们是怎么做的。

我们决定,去日本,说服世嘉把那些应用移到 PC 上。我们将通过与世嘉合作启动 PC 游戏、3D 游戏产业。这就是 NVIDIA 的开始。

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: 作为交换,他们为我们的 PC 电脑开发游戏,我们为他们的游戏机制造芯片。那就是合作。

错误的技术选择

黄仁勋: 我们开始起飞,开始制造我们的游戏机芯片。大约几年后,我们发现我们的第一代技术行不通。这是一个缺陷。我们所有的技术想法、架构概念都是合理的,但我们做计算机图形的方式完全反了。

不是用逆向纹理映射,我们在做正向纹理映射。不是用三角形,我们用曲面。最终胜出的技术,我们今天使用的技术有 Z 缓冲(Z buffers)。它自动排序。我们的架构没有 Z 缓冲。应用必须对其进行排序。所以我们选择了几个主要的技术路径,所有的选择都是错的。

1995 年,我们意识到我们走错了路。与此同时,硅谷挤满了 3D 图形初创公司,因为那是当时最令人兴奋的技术。3Dfx,Rendition,Silicon Graphics(SGI)也进来了。Intel 已经在里面了。大概有一百家不同的初创公司我们要竞争。每个人都选择了正确的技术路径,而我们选了错的。

所以我们是第一家开始的公司,发现自己基本上是最后一名,而且答案是错的。公司陷入了困境。

如果我现在改变,我们将是最后一家公司。即使我们改成了我们认为正确的技术,我们还是会死。所以那个争论,我们是改变然后死掉?还是不改变,想办法让这个技术行得通,或者去做完全不同的事情?最终我主张:我们不知道正确的策略是什么,但我们知道什么是错误的技术。所以让我们停止用错误的方式做,给我们自己一个机会去找出策略是什么。

第二个问题是我们的钱快用完了,我和世嘉有合同,我欠他们这个游戏机。如果那个合同取消,我们就死了。我们会瞬间蒸发。

与世嘉 CEO 的会面

黄仁勋: 所以我去了日本,向世嘉的 CEO 入交昭一郎(Shoichiro Irimajiri)解释,他是个很棒的人。我向他解释,我说:“听着,我有坏消息告诉你。首先,我们承诺给你们的技术行不通。其次,我们不应该完成你们的合同,因为我们会浪费你们所有的钱,而你们会得到一个行不通的东西。我建议你们找另一个合作伙伴来制造你们的游戏机。”

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: “第三,虽然我请求你让我解除合同,我还是需要那笔钱。”因为如果他不给我那笔钱,我们会一夜之间蒸发。

我谦卑地、诚实地解释了这两点。我向他解释了背景。解释了为什么技术行不通。我请求他把原本用来完成合同的最后 500 万美元作为投资给我们。他说:“但即便有我的投资,你的公司也很可能会倒闭。”这完全是真的。1995 年,500 万美元是一大笔钱。

如果我坐在那里,我也不会那么做。但我告诉他。如果你投那 500 万美元给我们,很可能会损失掉。但如果你不投,我们就没机会了。他想了几天,回来说:“我们做。”

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: 他之所以决定这么做,是因为他喜欢 Jensen 这个年轻人。就是这样。

乔·罗根: 哇。直到今天,这太疯狂了。

黄仁勋: 没错。如果他保留那笔投资,我想今天大概值一万亿美元。但在我们上市的那一刻,他们卖掉了。是的,他们以 NVIDIA 约 3 亿美元的估值卖掉了。

重头再来

黄仁勋: 无论是 30 家还是 50 家公司在做这个,能有多难?所以我去商店,口袋里有 200 美元,我买了三本教科书。那是仅有的三本。我买回来,分给每位架构师一本。我说:“读这个,我们去拯救公司。”

所以他们读了这本教科书,向当时的巨头 Silicon Graphics 学习如何做 3D 图形。但令人惊奇且让 NVIDIA 今天变得特别的是,那里的人能够从第一性原理出发。学习已知最好的艺术,但以从未做过的方式重新实现它。

乔·罗根: 你们做了什么改变?

突破性创新

黄仁勋: 简单的答案是,Silicon Graphics 的工作方式,几何引擎是在处理器上运行的一堆软件。我们拿过来,消除了所有的通用性。我们将其缩减为 3D 图形最本质的部分,并将其硬编码到芯片中。

所以与其做通用的东西,我们非常具体地将其硬编码,仅用于视频游戏的有限应用、有限功能。那种能力超级增强了那一个小芯片,我们那一个小芯片生成图像的速度和一台 100 万美元的图像生成器一样快。那是巨大的突破。

我们孤注一掷在视频游戏上。视频游戏的需求与 CAD 或飞行模拟器的需求非常不同。所以我们把问题陈述聚焦得很窄。我们把 GeForce 变成了 PC 里的游戏机。

毁灭战士 (Doom) 的起源

乔·罗根: 你知道 Doom 这个名字哪来的吗?来自于电影《金钱本色》(The Color of Money)里的一个场景,汤姆·克鲁斯打开箱子,有人问箱子里有什么,他说:“Doom(厄运/毁灭)。”因为 Carmack 说那就是他们想对游戏产业做的:Doom。

黄仁勋: 噢,哇。

模拟器的赌注

黄仁勋: 我们在准备发布 RIVA 128。但这 500 万美元撑不了多久。我们算了一下,我们没有机会生存下去。我们没有时间去流片(tape out)、送到代工厂 TSMC、拿回硅片、测试。没有希望。

所以我听说了一家公司,造了一台机器叫仿真器(emulator)。你可以把你的设计放进这台机器,这台机器会假装它是我们的芯片。所以我不用送到晶圆厂等它回来。我们决定拿剩下的一半钱——当时大约还剩一百万美元。拿一半钱去买这台机器。

我打电话给这家叫 IKOS 的公司。我说我想买一台。他们说:“噢太好了,但我们要倒闭了。”我说:“什么?”他说:“没人买。”所以我从库存里买了一台。

在这台机器上,我们把 NVIDIA 的芯片放进去,测试了所有软件。此时我们已经奄奄一息。但我们说服自己芯片会很棒。

台积电的赌注

黄仁勋: 我给 TSMC 打电话,Morris Chang(张忠谋),TSMC 的创始人,真的伟人。我解释了我们在做什么。我说我想直接进入生产。因为我知道它是工作的。他们说:“从没有人这么做过。”但我知道如果不开始生产,我反正也会破产。

Morris 飞到美国。他问了很多问题,试图套出我有没有钱。事实是我们没有全部的钱。但他决定支持我们。

结果证明那是完全革命性的,大获全胜。我们成为了历史上从零到 10 亿美元最快的科技公司。

乔·罗根: 太疯狂了,你们都没测试芯片。

黄仁勋: 我知道。我们后来测试了。我们改变了全世界设计芯片的方法。

经验教训与恐惧作为动力

黄仁勋: 我学到了很多。我学会了如何制定策略。我们学会了如何创造市场。这种完全相同的技能就是我们如何创造现代 AI 市场的。完全相同的蓝图。我们学会了如何处理危机。学会了如何消除公司里的所有浪费,从第一性原理工作。

那种感觉——就像我今天早上醒来的感觉一样——你要倒闭了。“离倒闭只有 30 天”这句话我用了 33 年。

乔·罗根: 你现在还有那种感觉?

黄仁勋: 噢,是的。每天早上。

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: 那种脆弱感、不确定感、不安全感。它不会离开你。

乔·罗根: 你认为这在驱动你吗?

黄仁勋: 我不想失败的驱动力比我想成功的驱动力更大。

乔·罗根: 这不是像成功教练会告诉你那是完全错误的心理学吗?

黄仁勋: 确实。我对失败的恐惧比贪婪或其他什么都更能驱动我。我不野心勃勃。你知道,我只是想活下去,Joe。

移民成功故事

黄仁勋: 我是移民。我父母先把我和哥哥送到这里。我出生在台湾,但我爸爸在泰国有工作。我们搬到了泰国。大约在 1973、1974 年。泰国有政变。我父母觉得孩子待在这里可能不安全。所以他们联系了住在华盛顿州塔科马的舅舅。

乔·罗根: 你多大?

黄仁勋: 我快 9 岁,哥哥快 11 岁。舅舅找了一所能接收外国学生且我父母负担得起的学校。那是位于肯塔基州奥奈达(Oneida)的学校。克拉克县,今天阿片类药物危机的震中,煤炭之乡。那是美国最贫穷的县。

乔·罗根: 哇。

黄仁勋: 奥奈达浸信会学院(Oneida Baptist Institute)。那是我的宿舍。每个孩子都有杂务。我哥哥是在烟草农场工作。我的工作是打扫宿舍。我 9 岁。我在打扫一百个男孩的厕所。所有的孩子都抽烟。大家都带着刀。我也抽了一周烟。

乔·罗根: 你 9 岁?

黄仁勋: 是的。我想大家都这么做。后来我觉得我宁愿用那点钱买冰棍。

乔·罗根: 多么奇怪、成型的经历。

黄仁勋: 我父母给了我们这个录音机和磁带。每个月我和哥哥会对父母说我们这一个月做了什么。然后寄给父母。父母录回来。我们就这样沟通了两年。

美国的梦想

黄仁勋: 我父母那是美国梦。我是美国梦的第一代。很难不爱这个国家。

乔·罗根: 这是一个浪漫的故事。

黄仁勋: 即使是后来发明 CUDA,导致股价暴跌。我们的估值跌到了 20 或 30 亿美元。但我真的相信它。如果你相信那个未来而不去做,你会后悔一辈子。

乔·罗根: 现在股价是多少?

黄仁勋: 高多了。但那项发明改变了世界。

乔·罗根: 这是一个不可思议的故事,Jensen。真的。

黄仁勋: 谢谢。这是美国梦。

乔·罗根: 确实是。Jensen,非常感谢你来这里。这真的很有趣。

黄仁勋: 谢谢。

乔·罗根: 谢谢。再见,大家。


n5321 | 2025年12月5日 23:45

taken the drudgery out of the design process

The computer has changed the practice of engineering forever. In the most simplest terms it has taken the drudgery out of the design process.


“In the words of James Clerk Maxwell: ‘the human mind is seldom satisfied, and is certainly never exercising its highest functions, when it is doing the work of a calculating machine


James Clerk Maxwell,  Five of Maxwell's Papers

 But is the student of science to be withdrawn from the study of man, or cut off from every noble feeling, so long as he lives in intellectual fellowship with men who have devoted their lives to the discovery of truth, and the results of whose enquiries have impressed themselves on the ordinary speech and way of thinking of men who never heard their names? Or is the student of history and of man to omit from his consideration the history of the origin and diffusion of those ideas which have produced so great a difference between one age of the world and another? 
Source: Gutenberg
 I shall only make one more remark on the relation between Mathematics and Physics. In themselves, one is an operation of the mind, the other is a dance of molecules. The molecules have laws of their own, some of which we select as most intelligible to us and most amenable to our calculation. We form a theory from these partial data, and we ascribe any deviation of the actual phenomena from this theory to disturbing causes. 
Source: Gutenberg
 I do not here refer to the fact that all quantities, as such, are subject to the rules of arithmetic and algebra, and are therefore capable of being submitted to those dry calculations which represent, to so many minds, their only idea of mathematics.
The human mind is seldom satisfied, and is certainly never exercising its highest functions, when it is doing the work of a calculating machine. What the man of science, whether he is a mathematician or a physical inquirer, aims at is, to acquire and develope clear ideas of the things he deals with.
 
Source: Gutenberg
 The aim of an experiment of illustration is to throw light upon some scientific idea so that the student may be enabled to grasp it. The circumstances of the experiment are so arranged that the phenomenon which we wish to observe or to exhibit is brought into prominence, instead of being obscured and entangled among other phenomena, as it is when it occurs in the ordinary course of nature. To exhibit illustrative experiments, to encourage others to make them, and to cultivate in every way the ideas on which they throw light, forms an important part of our duty. 
Source: Gutenberg
 The quantities which we study in mathematics and physics may be classified in two different ways.
The student who wishes to master any particular science must make himself familiar with the various kinds of quantities which belong to that science. When he understands all the relations between these quantities, he regards them as forming a connected system, and he classes the whole system of quantities together as belonging to that particular science. This classification is the most natural from a physical point of view, and it is generally the first in order of time.
 
Source: Gutenberg
 But why should we labour to prove the advantage of practical science to the University? Let us rather speak of the help which the University may give to science, when men well trained in mathematics and enjoying the advantages of a well-appointed Laboratory, shall unite their efforts to carry out some experimental research which no solitary worker could attempt. 
Source: Gutenberg
 The irreversible character of this process is strikingly embodied in Fourier's theory of the conduction of heat, where the formulae themselves indicate, for all positive values of the time, a possible solution which continually tends to the form of a uniform diffusion of heat.
But if we attempt to ascend the stream of time by giving to its symbol continually diminishing values, we are led up to a state of things in which the formula has what is called a critical value; and if we inquire into the state of things the instant before, we find that the formula becomes absurd.
 
Source: Gutenberg
 We may perhaps tire our eyes and weary our backs, but we do not greatly fatigue our minds.
It is not till we attempt to bring the theoretical part of our training into contact with the practical that we begin to experience the full effect of what Faraday has called "mental inertia"—not only the difficulty of recognising, among the concrete objects before us, the abstract relation which we have learned from books, but the distracting pain of wrenching the mind away from the symbols to the objects, and from the objects back to the symbols.
 
Source: Gutenberg
 That, by working the nut on the axis, we can make the order of colours either red, yellow, green, blue, or the reverse. When the order of colours is in the same direction as the rotation, it indicates that the axis of the instrument is that of greatest moment of inertia. 4thly. That if we screw the two pairs of opposite horizontal bolts to different distances from the axis, the path of the instantaneous pole will no longer be equidistant from the axis, but will describe an ellipse, whose longer axis is in the direction of the mean axis of the instrument. 
Source: Gutenberg
 But the great majority of mankind are utterly unable, without long training, to retain in their minds the unembodied symbols of the pure mathematician, so that, if science is ever to become popular, and yet remain scientific, it must be by a profound study and a copious application of those principles of the mathematical classification of quantities which, as we have seen, lie at the root of every truly scientific illustration. 
Source: Gutenberg
 Two theories of the constitution of bodies have struggled for victory with various fortunes since the earliest ages of speculation: one is the theory of a universal plenum, the other is that of atoms and void. 
Source: Gutenberg
 Now a truly scientific illustration is a method to enable the mind to grasp some conception or law in one branch of science, by placing before it a conception or a law in a different branch of science, and directing the mind to lay hold of that mathematical form which is common to the corresponding ideas in the two sciences, leaving out of account for the present the difference between the physical nature of the real phenomena. 
Source: Gutenberg
 Investigations of this kind, combined with a study of various phenomena of diffusion and of dissipation of energy, have recently added greatly to the evidence in favour of the hypothesis that bodies are systems of molecules in motion.
I hope to be able to lay before you in the course of the term some of the evidence for the existence of molecules, considered as individual bodies having definite properties. The molecule, as it is presented to the scientific imagination, is a very different body from any of those with which experience has hitherto made us acquainted.
 
Source: Gutenberg
 When we mix together blue and yellow paint, we obtain green paint. This fact is well known to all who have handled colours; and it is universally admitted that blue and yellow make green. Red, yellow, and blue, being the primary colours among painters, green is regarded as a secondary colour, arising from the mixture of blue and yellow. Newton, however, found that the green of the spectrum was not the same thing as the mixture of two colours of the spectrum, for such a mixture could be separated by the prism, while the green of the spectrum resisted further decomposition. 
Source: Gutenberg
 This characteristic of modern experiments—that they consist principally of measurements,—is so prominent, that the opinion seems to have got abroad, that in a few years all the great physical constants will have been approximately estimated, and that the only occupation which will then be left to men of science will be to carry on these measurements to another place of decimals. 
Source: Gutenberg
 Even in the present undeveloped state of the theory, the contemplation of the individuality and indestructibility of a ring-vortex in a perfect fluid cannot fail to disturb the commonly received opinion that a molecule, in order to be permanent, must be a very hard body. 
Source: Gutenberg
 It is probable that important results will be obtained by the application of this method, which is as yet little known and is not familiar to our minds. If the actual history of Science had been different, and if the scientific doctrines most familiar to us had been those which must be expressed in this way, it is possible that we might have considered the existence of a certain kind of contingency a self-evident truth, and treated the doctrine of philosophical necessity as a mere sophism. 
Source: Gutenberg
 Such, then, were some of the scientific results which followed in this case from bringing together mathematical power, experimental sagacity, and manipulative skill, to direct and assist the labours of a body of zealous observers. If therefore we desire, for our own advantage and for the honour of our University, that the Devonshire Laboratory should be successful, we must endeavour to maintain it in living union with the other organs and faculties of our learned body. 
Source: Gutenberg


n5321 | 2025年7月1日 23:34

设计or 管理

FORTUNELate last month, The New York Times published an article that both interested and surprised me. Steve Jobs is cited as an inventor on 313 patents and is the first listed inventor on over 10% of them. Almost all are design patents, running the gamut from MP3 players to power adaptors to the stairs in the Apple Store. Pretty interesting for someone with no formal design or technical training, much less the CEO of a major corporation. (His patent count eclipses that of any of his CEO counterparts.)

偶然看见的台词,Amazing!

乔帮主不只是最伟大的CEO, 还深入设计工作拿了313份专利。

这个post说这313份专利不是假的!


n5321 | 2025年6月13日 00:54

轻舟已过万重山

 看一个此前觉得还不错的Web project的source code. 几乎没有了新鲜感,有若干个点的处理,自认为有更恰当的处理方式!更少的code,更好的performance,更容易maintain。

大概一年前跟小朋友讲,这个过程简直了!收集七龙珠

tackle 1个问题,后面又是新的问题。从最开始的做电机的结构设计,然后搞PSC的性能设计,完了卖SW的仿真模块,接下去做BLDC,又为了management着迷,看了3年的peter drucker original book。

准备把coding这个小目标放弃的时候,又忽然来了一个大神指点。从Matlab开始,然后进AI,写desktop application,再接触database,完了之后又要弄web application,写browser service。一年又一年,一个领域又进另一个领域,到七龙珠收集完的时候,居然生出恍惚感。

用matlab控制Ansoft,自己设计一个for来loop N个电机设计方案,把Ansoft、 matlab、 excel integrate as a new whole的新套路,尝试过N个heuristic algorithm来drive new motor case,用neural network来generate new motor case,写一个新的UI,直接控制Ansys,添加一个DB,把所有的motor case存起来,改用Web App的框架,来更好的做marketing、从writing from scratch改用mature framework,然后complexity的问题慢慢受控。每一项尝试都可以让人high一下。

这回好了,那种tackle challenge的驱动力、满足感好像都褪色了!

召唤神龙好像不如收集龙珠酸爽!


n5321 | 2025年4月6日 22:39